Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.76; (P) 157.94; (R1) 158.27; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally would be in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 160.20 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 150.25 only. Another rally is still expected at a later stage through 160.02 to resume the larger up trend. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.04; (P) 106.36; (R1) 106.88; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Current rise form 102.58 should target 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22. Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger bullish reversal, and target 111.71 resistance. On the downside, below 105.84 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.02).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.56; (P) 103.88; (R1) 104.12; More...

USD/JPY’s fall from 105.67 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 103.17 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 111.71. On the upside, above 104.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further break of 105.67 resistance is needed to indicate bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of another rebound.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.18; (P) 142.96; (R1) 144.07; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 140.25 short term bottom is in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 144.69. On the downside, below 142.21 minor support will bring retest of 140.25 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 144.94 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.30; (P) 113.57; (R1) 114.00; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 112.52 will resume the fall from 115.51, as a correction to up trend from 102.57, and target 100% projection of 115.51 to 112.52 from 114.26 at 111.27. On the upside, above 114.26 will target a test on 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.77; (P) 107.94; (R1) 108.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with today’s recovery. On the downside, below 107.79 will resume the fall from 108.99 to retest 106.78 low first. Break will resume larger decline from 112.40. on the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 to 110.67 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.71; (P) 112.09; (R1) 112.71; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 108.81 is in progress for channel resistance (now at 112.89). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 110.94 support will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.00; (P) 109.38; (R1) 109.64; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 110.79 resistance holds. On the downside, below 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.44; (P) 106.83; (R1) 107.34; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 104.45 short term bottom is in progress. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 107.17) will pave the way to 109.31 key resistance. On the downside, break of 105.73 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.45 low instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.15; (P) 110.04; (R1) 110.49; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as the fall from 118.65 is still in progress. Next target will be 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. At this point, there is no clear indication of reversal yet and it’s staying comfortably inside a falling channel. Break of 108.81 will target 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and possibly below. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.15) will indicate that the second leg from 98.97 has completed at 118.65. And in that case, USD/JPY would start the third leg down through 98.97 low to 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. On the upside, break of 115.49 resistance should resume the rise from 98.97 for a test on 125.85 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.40; (P) 132.99; (R1) 133.40; More…

A temporary top is formed at 133.74 in USD/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Rise from 129.62 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 127.20. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 133.43) will target 137.90 resistance. On the downside, break of 131.75 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 129.62 first. Break there will bring retest of 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.37; (P) 121.90; (R1) 122.63; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current up trend should target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. On the downside, below 121.17 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.87; (P) 109.04; (R1) 109.31; More..

A temporary low is formed at 108.73 in USD/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations Further decline is in favor as long as 109.65 minor resistance holds. Break of 108.73 will target 107.65 key support. However, break of 109.65 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.28 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise form 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.06; (P) 135.18; (R1) 136.09; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 136.70 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained above 131.48 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.57; (P) 156.33; (R1) 157.52; More…

USD/JPY retreats ahead of 157.70 resistance and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20 high. Nevertheless, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside for 151.86 support and possibly below, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 160.20. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 147.77) holds, fall from 160.20 is seen as correcting the rise from 140.25 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.58; (P) 130.08; (R1) 130.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 133.76) and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation above 108.59 temporary low last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 110.94 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 108.59 will target a test on 108.12 low. Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, firm break of 110.94 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.28; (P) 110.68; (R1) 110.99; More…

USD/JPY drops notably today but stays above 110.25 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 110.25 minor support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. And in that case, the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, firm break of 111.23 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it’s struggle to get rid of 55 day EMA completely. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.85; (P) 113.14; (R1) 113.57; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside for 114.36 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm our bullish view that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65. On the downside, break of 112.88 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.78; (P) 109.33; (R1) 109.74; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 108.64 so far as the correction from 110.02 short term top extends. Intraday bias stays on the downside for near term channel support (now at 108.56) and below. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 109.24 minor resistance will bias back to the upside for 110.02. Break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to t 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.97).