Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.17; (P) 110.68; (R1) 111.03; More…

A temporary low is in place at 110.32 in USD/JPY. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. But outlook will stays bearish as long as 113.38 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected. Break of 110.32 will extend the whole decline from 114.73 to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. We’d look for bottoming signal again below 110.14.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.08; (P) 114.26; (R1) 114.51; More…

Further rise is expected in USD/JPY despite loss of upside momentum. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.18 next. On the downside, break of 113.20 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.61; (P) 151.77; (R1) 152.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 150.80 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 149.73). On the upside, however, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.38; (P) 113.58; (R1) 113.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.84; (P) 105.15; (R1) 105.71; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. While recovery from 104.62 continues, it’s limited well below 106.63 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral with outlook bearish. Another decline is expected and break of 104.62 will resume larger fall fro 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). Nonetheless, break of 106.63 will indicate short term bottom and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.97; (P) 109.21; (R1) 109.66; More…

With 108.54 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside. Rise from 104.62 is in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next. On the downside, below 108.54 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.47).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.54; (P) 106.00; (R1) 106.43; More...

With 105.20 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 106.07 support turned resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 104.18. More importantly, whole corrective decline from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18, just missed 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. In the case, further rise should be seen to 108.16 resistance next. However, break of 105.20 minor support will turn focus back to 104.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.32; (P) 105.59; (R1) 105.87; More...

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 105.20 minor support will suggest completion of rebound from 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned back to retest this low. On the upside, though, break of 106.47 will re-affirm the case of near term reversal and target 108.16 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.67; (P) 137.12; (R1) 137.96; More…

USD/JPY’s rise resumes by breaking through 137.70 and intraday bias is back on the upside for 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, to start the third leg of the corrective pattern from 139.37. Break of 136.17 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 130.38 support. Nevertheless, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm up trend resumption for 147.68 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.72) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes. Next target is 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.35; (P) 112.60; (R1) 112.88; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 114.49 continues today and reaches as low as 111.98 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper decline. As noted before, he rejection from 114.36 resistance suggests that whole correction from 118.65 is possibly still in progress. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 112.03) will pave the way to 108.12 and below. On the upside, above 112.86 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.45; (P) 105.72; (R1) 106.27; More..

USD/JPY’s rebound from 102.58 resumed by breaking 105.76 and hits as high as 106.21 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Such rally is seen as at least correcting the down trend from 111.71 to 102.58, with prospect of being an up trend of its own. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 108.22. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 104.40 support holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.23).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.86; (P) 111.82; (R1) 112.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 110.83 support. As noted before, current development argues that fall from 114.73 is resuming. Break of 110.83 will target 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. We’d look for bottoming signal again below 110.14. On the upside, above 112.05 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.91; (P) 116.05; (R1) 116.29; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally is part of the up trend from 102.58. Further rise should be seen to next long term resistance at 118.65. On the downside, below 116.24 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 114.40 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.75) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.59; (P) 148.23; (R1) 149.39; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Current up trend would target 61.8% projection of 130.38 to 140.33 from 145.89 at 149.91. Beware that Japan might intervene again there close to 150 psychological level. Nevertheless, break of 145.89 resistance turned support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is not clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 139.37 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.71; (P) 109.83; (R1) 110.00; More..

USD/JPY recovers notably today but stays below 110.14 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise remains in favor as long as 109.53 minor support holds. Firm break of 110.28 will resume whole rally from 104.45 for channel resistance (now at 111.16). On the downside, however, break of 109.53 will turn bias to the downside for 108.30 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.07; (P) 135.42; (R1) 136.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as sideway consolidation continues. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will indicate short term topping at 136.99. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.31; (P) 107.03; (R1) 107.48; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.54 is extending. Outlook remains bearish with 108.27 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 107.72 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.30; (P) 113.82; (R1) 114.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 115.49 resistance next. Outlook remains unchanged that correction from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Break of 115.49 will resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high. On the downside, below 113.04 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.08; (P) 115.22; (R1) 115.50; More…

USD/JPY rises to as high as 115.80 so far today and the strong break of 115.51 resistance confirms resumption of whole up trend from 102.58. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance. On the downside, break of 114.93 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 112.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.57; (P) 112.06; (R1) 112.47; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor with 111.07 support intact. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance (now at 113.03) will argue that whole correction from 118.65 has completed. In that case, further rise should be seen to 114.49 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 111.07 minor support will raise the risk of rejection from channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 110.64) and below.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.