Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.58; (P) 147.12; (R1) 147.78; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues and breaks 147.68 long term resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 149.25 projection level, and possibly to 150 psychological level. On the downside, break of 146.43 minor support will now suggest short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high), and possibly to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.21; (P) 129.31; (R1) 130.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 133.75) and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.71; (P) 104.95; (R1) 105.15; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and more range trading could be seen. Another rise is in favor with 104.39 support intact. On the upside, break of 105.76 will resume the rebound from 102.58 and target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. However, firm break of 104.39 will indicate that rebound from 102.58 has completed at 105.76. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 103.31 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.23).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.73; (P) 108.89; (R1) 109.11; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 108.93 indicates resumption of rise from 104.45. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, however, break of 108.25 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 106.48 support next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.63; (P) 115.20; (R1) 115.54; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.34; (P) 137.05; (R1) 138.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 134.73 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.34; (P) 139.91; (R1) 141.35; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY Is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations could be seen. But upside should be limited below 145.54 support turned resistance and bring another fall. Break of 138.45 will resume the decline from 151.93, as a correction to the larger up trend, towards 133.07 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.58).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.91; (P) 108.14; (R1) 108.47; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 107.79/108.99 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, below 107.79 will resume the fall from 108.99 to retest 106.78 low first. Break will resume larger decline from 112.40. On the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 to 110.67 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.06; (P) 133.06; (R1) 134.42; More…

Immediate focus remains on 134.49 resistance in USD/JPY. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 134.49 should confirm short term bottoming. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 138.16 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 129.49 at 138.06. On the downside, break of 129.49 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.65) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.26) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.74; (P) 113.93; (R1) 114.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 114.05 temporary top. Some consolidations would be seen but downside should be contained above 112.55 support to bring another rally. Above 114.05 will target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.09; (P) 110.38; (R1) 110.80; More…

USD/JPY rises further today but it’s still staying below 110.89 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 110.89 will resume the rise from 108.10 and target 111.39. Firm break there will resume the rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. On the downside, below 109.36 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline. But we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.86; (P) 140.66; (R1) 141.16; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 145.06 is in progress today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 137.90 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will confirm the larger bearish case. On the upside, above 142.06 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, current downside acceleration, as seen in daily MACD, argues that fall from 145.06 is already the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.30; (P) 105.46; (R1) 105.65; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 104.94 support intact, further rise remains in favor. On the upside, break of 106.10 will target 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.63; (P) 149.24; (R1) 149.67; More…

USD/JPY rebounded strongly despite dipping to 148.79. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 150.76 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 151.93 high. On the downside, below 148.79 will bring deeper pull back. But still, overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 147.28 support holds.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.40; (P) 111.57; (R1) 111.83; More…

USD/JPY is staying in tight range between 111.24 and 112.14. Intraday bias stays neutral first. With 111.24 minor support intact, further rise is still mildly in favor. Above 112.14 will target 113.17 resistance next. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 104.62 for 114.73 key resistance next. On the downside, below 111.24 minor support might extend the corrective fall from 113.17 with another decline. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.78; (P) 107.29; (R1) 107.61; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly today but further decline should be seen with 107.79 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 104.45 should have completed at 108.47 already. Break of 106.68 will confirm this case and target retest of 104.45 low. On the upside, break of 107.79 will turn focus back to 108.47 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation above 108.59 temporary low last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 110.94 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 108.59 will target a test on 108.12 low. Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, firm break of 110.94 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.37; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.58; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Sideway consolidation from 109.72 might extend further. But as long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.10; (P) 113.38; (R1) 113.87; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 114.20/73 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 104.62. On the downside, below 113.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.56; (P) 112.83; (R1) 113.34; More..

USD/JPY’s rebound from 111.37 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 114.54/73 key resistance zone. On the downside, break of 112.56 will possibly extend the correction from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 before completion.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.