Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.73; (P) 113.35; (R1) 113.77; More…

USD/JPY is still holding on to 112.88 support so far and intraday bias remains neutral first. Firm break of 112.88 will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed at 114.49 after being rejected by 114.36 key near term resistance. That would also argue that the correction from 118.65 is still in progress. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.98). On the upside, decisive break of 114.36 resistance will confirm that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.47; (R1) 110.66; More…

USD/JPY drew support from 4 hour 55 EMA and recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the downside, below 110.27 will target a test on 109.36 support. Break of 109.36 support will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg. And USD/JPY should target 108.10, and possibly below. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.57; (P) 146.87; (R1) 147.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below. Nevertheless, strong support from 146.81, followed by break of 148.29 minor resistance resistance, will argue that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, which has completed already. Retest of 150.87 should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.90; (P) 113.31; (R1) 113.72; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 111.58/114.94 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Corrective fall from 118.65 could extend lower through 111.58. But we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.44; (P) 109.56; (R1) 109.79; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged. Consolidation from 109.72 might extend. But as long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.30; (P) 105.48; (R1) 105.70; More...

With 104.92 support intact, further rise is expected in USD/JPY for 55 day EMA (now at 105.97). Sustained break of 55 day EMA will raise the chance of bullish reversal and target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 104.92 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.60; (P) 108.11; (R1) 108.40; More…

As noted before, corrective rebound from 107.54 should have completed at 108.99, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Further fall should be seen and break of 107.53 support will likely send USD/JPY through 106.78 to resume the decline from 112.40. For now, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 108.99 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.79; (P) 148.02; (R1) 148.42; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 140.25 is in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Further rally is expected to retest 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend. On the downside, below 147.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 145.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.60; (P) 115.89; (R1) 116.16; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 116.34 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 114.26 support turned resistance to bring another rally. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.89; (P) 150.43; (R1) 151.02; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 151.69 could still be seen as a consolidation pattern only. However, firm break of 148.79 will indicate rejection by 151.93 key resistance, and bring deeper fall through 147.28 support.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.63; (R1) 108.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 108.93 temporary top. Another retreat could not be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 107.81). On the upside, 108.93 will target 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.63; (P) 147.54; (R1) 148.44; More…

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 148.79 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Still, as long as 145.97 support holds, further rally is in favor. Corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.25; (P) 110.98; (R1) 111.42; More…

USD/JPY breaches 110.35 to 110.30 but quickly recovered. It’s still holding on to 110.35 support and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, decisive break there will confirm that whole rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.13. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28 next. On the upside, break of 111.15 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 112.13 high instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.93; (P) 108.22; (R1) 108.66; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Price actions from 109.72 are merely a corrective pattern, which could have completed at 107.77, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70. Further rise should be seen for 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 108.70). Sustained break will pave the way to retest 109.72 high. On the downside, firm break of 107.70 will pave the way to 106.48 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 106.46).

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 109.02). Overall outlook remains bearish and fall from 118.65 is in favor to extend through 104.45 low. This will now stay as the favored case as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.88; (P) 104.09; (R1) 104.27; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s staying in consolidation above 103.65 temporary low. Outlook is unchanged that larger decline from 111.71 is still in progress. Break of 103.65 should turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low and below. This bearish case will remain favored as long as 105.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.58; (P) 150.27; (R1) 151.55; More…

USD/JPY surges past 150.87 resistance to resume the rally from 140.25. Intraday bias stays on the upside for next key resistance at 151.93. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. On the downside, below 150.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.09) holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.63; (P) 109.78; (R1) 109.99; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 110.95 short term top is still in progress. Deeper decline could be seen to 108.40 support. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 107.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 110.95 will resume the whole rise from 102.58, for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone next

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. Rejection by 111.71, however, will keep medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.68; (P) 148.83; (R1) 149.55; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 151.89 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the downside for medium term channel support at 146.00 next. On the upside, above 148.67 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 151.89 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.97; (P) 104.29; (R1) 104.50; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stay son the downside at this point, and further fall should be seen to retest 103.17 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 111.71. On the upside, above 104.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further break of 105.67 resistance is needed to indicate bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of another rebound.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.28; (P) 108.50; (R1) 108.67; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 107.81 and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.