Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.28; (P) 110.93; (R1) 112.02; More..

USD/JPY surges to as high as 111.59 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained trading above long term trend line resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 112.40 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 109.65 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.63; (P) 123.81; (R1) 124.16; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bullish with 121.17 support intact and further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 125.09 will target 125.85 long term resistance. Firm break pave the way to 130.04 long term projection level. However, break of 121.17 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 108.51; (R1) 108.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain neutral first. Retreat from 108.93 might extend lower. But downside should be contained well above 106.48 support to bring another rise. On the upside, above 108.93 will target 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.73; (P) 144.30; (R1) 144.69; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 145.89 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.77; (P) 107.94; (R1) 108.08; More…

USD/JPY is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But outlook remains unchanged for now. Corrective rebound from 107.54 should have completed at 108.99, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Further fall should be seen and break of 107.53 support will likely send USD/JPY through 106.78 to resume the decline from 112.40. This is will remain the preferred case as long as 108.99 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.21; (P) 129.31; (R1) 130.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 133.75) and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.63; (P) 154.76; (R1) 154.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside for further rally. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 support will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 151.11).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.99; (P) 110.41; (R1) 110.64; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Focus stays on 110.95 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 111.71 key resistance next. However, break of 109.79 support will suggest rejection by 110.95. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 109.17 support. Break there will extend the consolidation pattern from 110.95 with another falling leg, targeting 107.47 support again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.58; (P) 147.12; (R1) 147.78; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues and breaks 147.68 long term resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 149.25 projection level, and possibly to 150 psychological level. On the downside, break of 146.43 minor support will now suggest short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high), and possibly to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.59; (P) 108.94; (R1) 109.26; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. With 108.33 minor support intact, further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the rally from 102.58 to long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger implications. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.09; (P) 152.66; (R1) 153.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03 is already met but there is not sign of topping yet. Sustained break there will target 155.20 projection level next. On the downside, below 151.95 support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 150.80 support holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.46; (P) 107.66; (R1) 107.79; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Further rise is expected with 106.74 minor support intact. We’re holding on to the view that corrective fall from 111.71 has completed at 105.98. Above 108.08 will target 109.38 resistance next. However, break of 106.74 minor support will dampen the bullish view and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.60; (P) 106.14; (R1) 106.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 105.52 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 109.31 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 105.52 will target 104.69 low next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.54; (P) 113.65; (R1) 113.87; More…

USD/JPY continues to trade in established range and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.68; (P) 109.94; (R1) 110.13; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with today’s retreat, but another rise is in favor as long as 108.55 support holds. On the upside, above 110.19 will resume the rise from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 to 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 108.55 will turn bias to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.63; (P) 115.20; (R1) 115.54; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.49; (P) 139.04; (R1) 139.71; More…

Breach of 137.66 support suggests that fall from 151.93 is resuming. Intraday bias in now on the downside for 100% projection of 146.78 to 137.66 from 142.24 at 133.12, which is close to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. For now, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 142.24 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.22).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.06; (P) 133.06; (R1) 134.42; More…

Immediate focus remains on 134.49 resistance in USD/JPY. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 134.49 should confirm short term bottoming. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 138.16 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 129.49 at 138.06. On the downside, break of 129.49 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.65) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.26) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.54; (P) 112.68; (R1) 112.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 113.17 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance next. On the downside, below 112.39 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 111.82 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.09; (P) 110.38; (R1) 110.80; More…

USD/JPY rises further today but it’s still staying below 110.89 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 110.89 will resume the rise from 108.10 and target 111.39. Firm break there will resume the rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. On the downside, below 109.36 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline. But we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.