Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.93; (R1) 111.34; More…

USD/JPY’s strong rebound surges that corrective fall from 111.89 has completed with three waves down to 110.37. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 111.82 first. Break will resume the rebound from 109.76 and target 113.17. For now, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76. Hence, even in case of another decline, we’d continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.29; (P) 106.66; (R1) 107.18; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 105.24 and intraday bias remains on the upside. Note again that bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hour MACD. On the upside, decisive break 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next. But before that, another decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.26; (P) 110.69; (R1) 110.92; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Focus remains on whether USD/JPY could sustain above 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. If yes, further rise could be seen back to 114.54 resistance. However, break of 110.00 will suggest that it’s actually rejected after the rebound from 104.69 was skewed slightly upwards. In that case, the original bearish view will be revived and further fall should be seen through 108.49 support.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 104.69 mixed up outlook. We’d turn neutral for now first. On the upside, firm break of 110.77 resistance will suggest that fall from 114.54 has completed at 104.69 already. Such decline is seen as a leg in the corrective pattern from 118.65, which might be finished too. Decisive break of 114.54 will confirm this case and target 118.65 and above. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will turn focus back to 104.62/9 support zone instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.06; (P) 111.21; (R1) 111.37; More…

As noted before, whole rebound form 107.32 should have finished at 114.73. Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 101.14. For the moment, we’re still favoring the case medium term corrective pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. Hence, we’ll looking for bottoming below 101.14 to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 112.71 resistance will indicate that the fall from 114.73 is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming. However, firm break of 111.64 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 107.31 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.16; (P) 147.54; (R1) 147.99; More…

USD/JPY is still holding above 145.97 resistance turned support. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point, and further rally is still in favor. As noted before, corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone. However, firm break of 145.97 will dampen this view, and turn bias to the downside for deeper fall towards 140.25.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 142.49) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.34; (P) 130.97; (R1) 131.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as corrective pattern from 129.62 is in progress. With 132.99 resistance intact, outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 129.62 will target a test on 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 151.93 to 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is still in progress. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.17; (P) 145.72; (R1) 146.10; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 144.52/147.36 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 144.52 support holds, further rally remains in favor. Above 147.36 will resume the rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 144.52 should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 143.04).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.34; (P) 153.89; (R1) 154.83; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 154.12 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.64; (P) 113.88; (R1) 114.28; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 113.81 temporary top suggests that rebound from 111.37 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 114.54 resistance. At this point, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another fall to extend the consolidation pattern from 114.54. On the downside, break of 112.94 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed. And, in that case, the corrective pattern from 114.54 could have started the third leg for 111.37 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.33; (P) 106.62; (R1) 106.87; More...

USD/JPY continues to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But there is no sign of bottoming yet. Fall from 111.71 is still in progress for 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58 next. Momentum of the current decline and reaction from 104.58 should reveal whether USD/JPY is resuming larger down trend. On the upside, break of 108.04 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.85; (P) 113.14; (R1) 113.57; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 113.68 temporary low. Downside of retreat should be contained by 111.72 support to bring another rally. Above 113.68 will target 114.36 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm our bullish view that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.40; (P) 139.86; (R1) 140.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again as it recovery after failing to break through 137.22 support. On the downside, break of 137.22 will resume the whole decline from 145.06, and carries larger bearish implications. On the upside, though, break of 141.93 will resume the rebound from 137.22 and target a test on 145.06 high.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.98; (P) 111.17; (R1) 111.39; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. We’re holding on to the view that correction from 113.17 should have completed at 109.76 already. Above 111.48 will turn bias to the upside for 112.14. Break will pave the way to retest 113.17 high. Meanwhile, below 110.74 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.76 instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

USD/JPY edged lower to 105.98 last week but recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Fall from 111.71 is still in progress despite weak downside momentum. Break of 105.98 will target 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 107.49 resistance will suggest completion of the fall and turn bias to the upside for 109.38 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.24; (P) 146.31; (R1) 146.94; More…

USD/JPY retreated after spiking higher to 147.36 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rally remains in favor as long as 144.52 support holds. Above 147.36 will resume the rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 144.52 should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 142.86).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.13; (P) 111.42; (R1) 111.79; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 111.58 support turned resistance. We’re favoring the case that corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Sustained break of 111.58 will confirm this bullish view and target 115.49 resistance and above. However, break of 109.58 will argue that fall from 118.65 is still in progress and will turn bias to the downside for 108.12 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.26; (P) 110.69; (R1) 110.92; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 111.13 extends today but stays above 110.00 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, focus remains on whether USD/JPY could sustain above 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. If yes, further rise could be seen back to 114.54 resistance. However, break of 110.00 will suggest that it’s actually rejected after the rebound from 104.69 was skewed slightly upwards. In that case, the original bearish view will be revived and further fall should be seen through 108.49 support.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 104.69 mixed up outlook. We’d turn neutral for now first. On the upside, firm break of 110.77 resistance will suggest that fall from 114.54 has completed at 104.69 already. Such decline is seen as a leg in the corrective pattern from 118.65, which might be finished too. Decisive break of 114.54 will confirm this case and target 118.65 and above. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will turn focus back to 104.62/9 support zone instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.26; (P) 107.53; (R1) 107.80; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 108.16 temporary top. Further rise is in favor as long as 106.79 support holds. On the upside, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 to 109.85 resistance next. Break will argue that larger rebound from 101.18 might be resuming to 112.22 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.79 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 106.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.57; (P) 142.60; (R1) 143.14; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 140.94 and intraday bias stays neutral. Also, outlook will remain bearish as long as 146.58 resistance holds. Firm break of 140.94 will resume the whole fall from 151.89. Next target will be next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.14; (P) 148.63; (R1) 149.01; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 150.15 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 147.28 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.