Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.04; (P) 109.37; (R1) 109.56; More…

Once again, USD/JPY drew support from 109.10 and recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first as range trading could continue. On the downside, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.69; (P) 107.88; (R1) 108.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is neutral for the moment. But with 108.37 resistance intact, further fall is expected. Break of 107.21 will target 106.78 low. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 112.40 and target 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 108.37 will extend the correction from 106.78 with another rise, possibly through 108.99 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after edging lower to 108.81. The break of 110.80 resistance argues that fall from 114.36 has completed already. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for near term channel resistance (now at 113.06). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. Nonetheless, break of 108.81 will still extend the fall from 118.65 through 108.12 low before completion.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.89; (P) 111.24; (R1) 111.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 118.82 is seen as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 112.13. Deeper decline would be seen to 109.71 and below. But downside should be contained by 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.58 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 112.13 resistance. Decisive break of 112.13 will resume whole rally from 104.69 and target 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.67; (P) 110.16; (R1) 110.46; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is staying in range of 109.53/110.94 and intraday bias remains neutral first. After all, with 110.94 resistance intact, outlook stays bearish and deeper decline is still expected. On the downside, below 109.53 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 108.12 support first. Firm break of 108.12 support will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. In that case, USD/JPY will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 110.94 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back towards 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.76; (P) 106.07; (R1) 106.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 105.54 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 108.72 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.04; (P) 106.37; (R1) 106.56; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 107.09 minor resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish for further decline. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger fall from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.66).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.61; (P) 110.78; (R1) 111.02; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 111.13 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it couldn’t sustain above 55 day EMA yet. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.86; (P) 108.21; (R1) 108.43; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 110.95 resumed after brief recovery and focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 107.75. We’d still look for strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 108.99 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.95 high. However, sustained break of 107.75 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 105.77.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. However, rejection by 111.71, followed by sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 107.96) will dampen the bullish view and keep medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.03; (P) 113.49; (R1) 113.78; More…

USD/JPY’s consolidation pattern from 114.36 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained by 112.08 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 108.12 to 114.36 at 111.97) and bring rally resumption. We’re holding on to the view that corrective fall from 118.65 is completed with three wave down to 108.12. Above 114.36 will target 115.49 resistance first. Break there should resume whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.14; (P) 150.42; (R1) 150.81; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 150.78 is extending. Another retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. Above 150.87 will resume the rally from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next. However, firm break of 148.79 will turn bias to the downside for 145.88 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.76; (P) 109.93; (R1) 110.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 110.32 will resume the rise from 107.47. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, below 109.17 will target 108.55 support, and then 107.47.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.71; (P) 148.04; (R1) 148.63; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 148.29 minor resistance argues that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, and has completed at 146.47. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 150.87. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.99; (P) 105.25; (R1) 105.61; More...

USD/JPY’s break of 105.20 minor resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 104.00. Intraday bias is now back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 106.02). Sustained break there will raise the chance of bullish reversal and target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 104.85 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 104.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.94; (P) 112.06; (R1) 112.19; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral with focus on 112.13 key resistance. On the upside, sustained break of 112.13 will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, below 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.61; (P) 116.39; (R1) 117.72; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 118.65 continues. Outlook stays bullish with 114.76 intact and further rise is expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 113.00) and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.05 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.93; (P) 154.30; (R1) 155.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 150.97).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.60; (P) 114.05; (R1) 114.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 112.88 minor support. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed at 114.49 after being rejected by 114.36 key near term resistance. That would also argue that the correction from 118.65 is still in progress. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.94). On the upside, decisive break of 114.36 resistance will confirm that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.14; (P) 110.56; (R1) 110.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. In case of another fall, we’d look for bottoming again below 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 111.26 support turned resistance will suggest that USD/JPY has bottomed slightly earlier than expected. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 113.38 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the corrective pull back from 114.73 and turn outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.82; (P) 108.14; (R1) 108.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 112.40 is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. On the upside, break of 109.02 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.