Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.48; (P) 106.83; (R1) 107.28; More…

Consolidation from 105.54 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral in USD/JPY. Also, with 108.27 resistance intact, outlook remains mildly bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.63; (P) 143.81; (R1) 144.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Further rally would be seen to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next. On the downside, below 142.67 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.67; (P) 137.12; (R1) 137.96; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress for 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, to start the third leg of the corrective pattern from 139.37. Break of 136.17 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 130.38 support. Nevertheless, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm up trend resumption for 147.68 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.72) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes. Next target is 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.10; (P) 107.43; (R1) 107.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise could be seen as long as 106.64 minor support intact. But 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12, remains crucial in determining the medium outlook. Break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.98; (P) 106.31; (R1) 106.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s stuck in range below 107.00. Another rise is mildly in favor as long as 105.31 minor support holds. Above 107.00 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we’ll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.31 minor support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.61; (P) 147.77; (R1) 148.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Current rise from 127.20 should target a retest on 151.93 high. On the downside, below 147.49 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 145.88 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.94; (P) 106.03; (R1) 106.12; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for some consolidations below 106.11 temporary top. Further rise is expected with 104.94 support intact. Current development argues that down trend from 111.71 has completed on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Above 106.11 will target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. However, on the downside, break of 104.94 will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of this low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.88; (P) 112.15; (R1) 112.63; More…

USD/JPY rises to as high as 112.42 so far, just below 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained break of 112.43 will pave the way to retest 113.17 high. On the downside, break of 111.65 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, further rise is expected even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.96; (P) 133.42; (R1) 133.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and the corrective pattern from 139.37 is still unfolding. Range trading between 126.35/139.37 will continue for a while. On the downside, break of 130.38 will target 100% projection of 139.37 to 130.38 from 135.57 at 126.58. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound form 130.38 to retest 139.37.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.43; (P) 113.57; (R1) 113.83; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 113.96 so far. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally from 104.62 should target 114.73 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. On the downside, below 113.31 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.71; (P) 144.25; (R1) 145.27; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.37; (P) 109.47; (R1) 109.60; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rise form 104.45 is still in progress and should target 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50 next. On the downside, below 109.20 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 108.24 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.86; (P) 107.11; (R1) 107.28; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues inside 106.63/108.16. On the downside, break 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.50; (P) 114.94; (R1) 115.48; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 112.51/115.61 and intraday bias remains neutral. The choppy decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. Break of 115.61 resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance. On the downside, below 112.51 will extend such decline but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.36; (P) 132.80; (R1) 133.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Immediate focus remains on 55 week EMA (now at 131.78). Decisive break there will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 121.43. On the upside, above 133.61 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 138.16 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.76) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.42; (P) 109.52; (R1) 109.61; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation form 109.72 might extend further. As long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.67; (P) 107.93; (R1) 108.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 108.47 will resume the rebound from 104.45 to 109.31 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 106.96 will extend the fall from 108.47. Further break of 106.68 will confirm completion of rebound from 104.45 and target a retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.31; (P) 133.37; (R1) 133.97; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 130.38 resumes after brief retreat. Break of 134.58 resistance suggests that correction from 139.37 has completed. Intraday bias is back to the upside for retesting 139.37 high. On the downside, below 132.50 minor support will resume the correction from 139.337 through 130.38 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 139.37, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from there could be correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.86; (P) 140.66; (R1) 141.16; More…

Intraday bias in is turned neutral for the moment, as USD/JPY lost momentum after briefly breaching 137.90 resistance turned support. Some consolidations could be seen, but recovery should be limited by 55 4H EMA (now at 141.03) and bring another decline. Sustained break of 137.90 will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below.

In the bigger picture, current downside acceleration, as seen in daily MACD, argues that fall from 145.06 is already the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.13; (P) 127.10; (R1) 127.85; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as correction from 131.34 is in progress. Deeper decline could be seen. But downside should be contained by 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.