Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.28; (P) 110.93; (R1) 112.02; More..

USD/JPY’s rally extends to as high as 112.19 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Next target is 112.40 resistance and decisive break there will affirm medium term bullishness. On the downside, below 111.11 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 110.28 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.13; (P) 109.36; (R1) 109.55; More…

USD/JPY is staying above 109.14 minor support and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 110.00 will resume the rebound from 104.69. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 109.14 minor support will be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside for 107.77 minor support first.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

USD/JPY gyrated lower last week as as the corrective pattern from 113.17 extended. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for deeper fall. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.52 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 112.14 will bring retest of 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.79; (P) 130.04; (R1) 130.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 131.24 might extend further. Near term outlook stays bullish with 126.91 support intact and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 131.24 will resume recent up trend to 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 126.91 will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 121.27/125.09 support zone.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.31; (P) 151.61; (R1) 152.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with 4H MACD crossed below signal line. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 resistance will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 157.69 projection level. Meanwhile, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 149.17 support holds, even in case of deep retreat.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2021 low) to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.56; (P) 110.90; (R1) 111.43; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 110.37/111.82 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 111.73 minor resistance will resume the rebound from 109.76 to retest 113.17 high. Break there will resume larger rise from 104.62. On the downside, below 110.37 will bring deeper fall. But still, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.54; (P) 114.77; (R1) 115.20; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Overall, corrective pattern from 116.34 is extending. Below 114.14 will target 113.46 and possibly further to 112.52 support. On the upside, above 115.68 will bring retest of 116.34 high.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.92; (P) 104.10; (R1) 104.30; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. It’s staying well inside falling channel, and below 55 day EMA, keeping near term outlook bearish. On the downside, break of 103.65 will target 103.17 low for resuming larger down trend from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 108.49 last week but recovered before closing. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 110.00 will extend the rebound from 104.69. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 108.49 will target 107.77 support first. Break will confirm completion of the rebound and bring retest of 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.55) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.02; (P) 105.35; (R1) 105.54; More..

USD/JPY is holding above 104.39 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 105.76 will resume the rebound from 102.58, for 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. However, decisive break of 104.39 will indicate that the rebound has completed, and bring retest of 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

USD/JPY rebounded after dipping to 129.49 last week, but failed to break through 134.49 resistance decisively. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 134.49 should confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rise to 138.16 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 129.49 at 138.06). However, break of 129.49 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.73) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.08) holds.

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.79; (P) 148.99; (R1) 149.27; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise from 127.20 should target to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, below 148.45 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now stay bullish as long as 145.88 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.59; (P) 109.74; (R1) 109.91; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 110.01 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further remains in favor as long 108.30 support holds. On the upside, above 110.01 will target 110.28 first. Break will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term falling channel resistance at 111.19.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.61; (P) 109.82; (R1) 110.05; More…

USD/JPY is losing upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 109.50 minor support intact, further rise is expected. Current rally from 104.62 should target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next. Nonetheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 109.50 will indicate short term topping. And lengthier consolidation would be seen before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.78).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.41; (P) 134.93; (R1) 135.99; More…

USD/JPY continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rally is expected as long as 131.34 resistance turned support holds. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.98; (P) 108.36; (R1) 109.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 104.62 is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next. On the downside, below 108.54 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.47).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.60; (P) 110.76; (R1) 110.88; More….

USD/JPY’s recovery was limited by 4 hour 55 EMA and retreated. But it’s staying above 109.83 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral first. The consolidation from 109.83 might extend and another rise cannot be ruled out. But after all, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 112.18 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected. Break of 109.83 will target 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.05; (P) 114.37; (R1) 114.66; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first as it retreated just ahead of 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71. On the downside, break of 113.87 minor support will confirm short term topping, and turn intraday bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 114.71 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 100% projection at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.53; (R1) 110.77; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 109.91 minor support suggests that corrective rebound from 108.10 has completed at 110.89 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 108.10 support and possibly below. Fall from 110.89 is seen as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 111.39. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 110.89 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.94; (P) 110.14; (R1) 110.54; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.11 extends higher today and focus is now immediately on 110.44 resistance. Firm break there will argue that consolidation pattern from 111.65 might have finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen through 110.79 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, though, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.