Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.56; (P) 112.87; (R1) 113.15; More…

USD/JPY continues stay in tight range below 113.25, around medium term channel resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.14; (P) 148.63; (R1) 149.01; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 150.15 despite the bounce in early US session. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, below 147.28 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.41; (P) 151.61; (R1) 151.75; More…

USD/JPY is staying in tight range below 151.96 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 151.02 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.43). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.09; (P) 128.24; (R1) 129.03; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 129.39 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 125.09 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 129.39 will resume larger up trend to 130.04 long term projection level next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.81; (P) 137.84; (R1) 138.39; More…

USD/JPY’s pull back from1 39.37 extends lower today and intraday bias stays neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained by 134.73 support. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.28; (P) 148.19; (R1) 148.86; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 151.93 and intraday bias stays neutral. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. Upside of rally attempt should be limited by 151.39 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.12; (P) 107.50; (R1) 107.97; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for some consolidations below 108.16 temporary top. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 106.79 support holds. Above 108.16 will target 109.85 resistance first. Break will argue that larger rebound from 101.18 might be resuming to 112.22 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.79 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 106.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.33; (P) 109.50; (R1) 109.82; More…

USD/JPY drew support from 4 hour 55 EMA again and recovered. But it’s staying below 110.02 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 38.2s% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.79; (P) 140.30; (R1) 140.71; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside, and current up trend should target 100% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 143.40. Sustained break there could bring upside acceleration of 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, below 138.04 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.85; (P) 131.19; (R1) 131.79; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 4 hour 55 EMA argues that rebound from 127.20 has completed at 132.89. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 151.93. On the upside, above 132.89 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.00; (P) 105.35; (R1) 105.65; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Though, further decline is expected as long as 107.09 resistance holds. Break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.46; (P) 106.68; (R1) 106.98; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 102.58 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22. Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger bullish reversal, and target 111.71 resistance. On the downside, below 106.21 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 104.91 support holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.02).

USD/JPY attempted for a recovery last week but upside was limited well below 105.67 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week. Also, it’s staying well inside falling channel, and below 55 day EMA, keeping near term outlook bearish. On the downside, break of 103.65 will target 103.17 low for resuming larger down trend from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.41; (P) 149.62; (R1) 149.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 150.15 is in progress. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.76 resumed last week to as high as 112.16. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. On the downside, break of 111.10 minor support is needed to signal completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook is cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.99; (P) 113.22; (R1) 113.62; More…..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Break of 113.74 will resume rise from 110.83 and target key resistance at 114.73 next. On the downside, below 112.83 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But we’ll continue to expect further rally ahead as long as 112.02 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

USD/JPY recovered ahead of 110.23 last week as consolidation from there extended. But it was rejected by 55 day EMA and dropped sharply to close at 110.36. Initial bias is cautiously on the downside this week. Break of 110.23 will resume the fall from 114.36. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.12 and below. Whole decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction and is still in progress. We’ll look for bottoming signal at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 as the correction extends. Meanwhile, above 111.70 will turn intraday bias back to the upside. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.36 to 110.23 at 112.78 to limit upside and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.98; (P) 135.92; (R1) 137.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 137.66 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 142.24 resistance first. However, before, another decline could still be seen to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level or further to 55 week EMA.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.38; (P) 103.54; (R1) 103.66; More..

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 102.87 and intraday bias remains neural. Outlook stays bearish as it’s staying well inside falling channel from 111.71. Break of 102.87 will bring deeper fall to retest 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.48; (P) 105.63; (R1) 105.80; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point, for 106.94 resistance. Current development argues revives the case that down trend from 111.71 has completed on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. On the upside, break of 106.94 resistance will confirm and turn outlook bullish. On downside, break of 104.94 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain mildly in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.