Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.64; (P) 106.85; (R1) 107.12; More...

USD/JPY lost upside momentum after hitting 107.05 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 111.71 should have completed with three waves down to 104.18, after missing 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. Above 107.05 will target 108.16 resistance and break will target 109.85 and above. In any case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 105.30 support holds, even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.59; (P) 106.78; (R1) 106.87; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it retreated after hitting channel resistance. Some consolidations could be seen and deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 104.91 support holds. Break of 106.95 will resume the rally from 102.58 to 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.02).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.85; (P) 114.21; (R1) 114.91; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 114.54 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance. On the downside, break of 113.51 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.94; (P) 112.06; (R1) 112.19; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral with focus on 112.13 key resistance. On the upside, sustained break of 112.13 will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, below 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.31; (P) 109.65; (R1) 109.99; More…

With 109.14 minor support intact, further rise is still mildly in favor in USD/JPY. Rebound from 104.69 could target 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. We’d look for topping signal above there. On the downside, break of 109.14 minor support will be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

USD/JPY surged to as high as 111.07 last week and met 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 already. As a temporary top is formed, initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation. We’d expect downside of retreat to be contained above 110.02 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 111.07 will extend the rise from 104.62 for trend line resistance at 112.33.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 108.55) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.28; (P) 108.43; (R1) 108.72; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 107.81 could extend further. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support. However, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first..

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

USD/JPY edged higher to 131.34 last week but reversed from there and dropped to 127.51. But as a temporary low is formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Price actions from 131.34 are seen as correcting the whole rally from 114.40. Hence, rise will stay on the downside as long as 131.34 holds. Below 127.51 will target 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86).

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. First target at 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 was already met. Next is 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.65; (P) 140.57; (R1) 141.21; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and further rise expected with 139.27 support intact. Current rise from 127.20 should now target 142.48 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 139.27 will now indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, decisive break of 137.90 resistance turned support will now be the first indicate that this rebound from 127.20 has completed already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.40; (P) 112.67; (R1) 113.01; More….

USD/JPY is still bounded tight range below 113.25 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.75; (P) 144.28; (R1) 145.29; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Decisive break of 145.06 will resume whole rise from 127.20. Next target is 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76. On the downside, however, below 143.27 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

USD/JPY edged higher to 112.40 last week but retreated sharply since then. A short term top should be in place on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 110.84 support first. Break will add to the case of reversal and target 109.71 support and below. On the upside, decisive break of 112.40 is needed to confirm resumption of rise from 104.69. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.07; (P) 142.65; (R1) 143.69; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 127.20 would target a retest on 151.93 high. On the downside, below 141.20 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will now remain in favor as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 151.93 are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58. The first leg has completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg, and should be limited below 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 137.93) will argue that the third leg has started back to 127.20 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.16; (P) 130.49; (R1) 130.87; More…

Breach of 131.24 resistance argues that USD/JPY’s up trend is resuming. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 128.61 support holds. However, firm break of 128.61 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.43; (P) 112.97; (R1) 113.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Corrective fall from 118.65 could extend lower through 111.58. But we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.57; (P) 107.87; (R1) 108.08; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 106.78 and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 108.80 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 106.78 minor support will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. However, firm break of 108.80 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for 110.67 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.01; (P) 115.35; (R1) 115.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. But further rise is expected as long as 114.46 minor support holds. Above 115.68 will target 116.34 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, break of 114.46 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 113.46 support instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation below 144.98 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, rise from 101.18 is seen as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rally is expected to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is slightly above 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 125.61) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.35; (P) 112.70; (R1) 113.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again as it failed to break through 113.43 resistance and retreats sharply today. On the upside, break of 113.43 will resume the rise from 107.31 and target 114.49 resistance. More importantly current development revives the case that correction from 118.65 has completed at 107.31. Decisive break of 114.49 will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 111.64 will mixed up the outlook again and turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.53; (P) 111.57; (R1) 112.33; More..

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 110.81 so far before recovery mildly. Outlooks is unchanged that price actions from 114.54 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. We’d continue to expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 111.84 will turn bias back to the upside for rebound to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 112.56). However, firm break of 110.75 will target 61.8% retracement at 108.40.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.