Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.98; (P) 110.08; (R1) 110.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside as rise from 107.47 resumes through 110.32. Further rise should be seen to 110.95 high next. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 111.71 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 109.75 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.73; (P) 113.35; (R1) 113.77; More…

USD/JPY is still holding on to 112.88 support so far and intraday bias remains neutral first. Firm break of 112.88 will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed at 114.49 after being rejected by 114.36 key near term resistance. That would also argue that the correction from 118.65 is still in progress. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.98). On the upside, decisive break of 114.36 resistance will confirm that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.65; (P) 112.06; (R1) 112.63; More…

USD/JPY is still staying in range below 112.71 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that further rise is expected as long as 111.07 support holds. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance (now at 112.90) will argue that whole correction from 118.65 has completed. In that case, further rise should be seen to 114.49 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 111.07 minor support will raise the risk of rejection from channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 110.72) and below.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.30; (P) 108.56; (R1) 108.77; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 107.81 is still extending. Upside of recovery should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.73; (P) 114.25; (R1) 114.89; More…

USD/JPY breaches 114.74 in early US session but stays below 114.94 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of the corrective pull back from 118.65. This would be supported by a double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the upside for retesting 118.65. In case of another decline, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.19; (P) 113.55; (R1) 113.80; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is still holding above 112.95 support and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 112.95 will indicate rejection from 114.49 resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 111.89 first. On the upside, sustained break of 114.49 key resistance will pave the way to retest 118.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming. However, firm break of 111.64 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 107.31 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.53; (P) 112.03; (R1) 112.45; More…

At this point, deeper decline cannot be ruled out in USD/JPY yet. But again, choppy fall from 118.65 is seen as a correction. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 113.44 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 115.36 resistance will argue that such correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.67; (P) 111.22; (R1) 111.72; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 115.49 is still in progress for the moment. Sustained trading below 111.12/13 cluster support (61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13) will pave the way to 100% projection at 108.42. Nonetheless, rebound from there current level, and break of 112.86 resistance will indicates completion of the correction from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 115.49 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.12) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.16; (P) 112.61; (R1) 112.90; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 113.04 temporary top. Further rise is still expected as long as 110.86 support holds. We’d holding on to the view that corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12 already. Break of 113.04 will target 115.49 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high. However, break of 110.86 support will keep USD/JPY inside near term falling channel and will turn bias back to the downside for 108.12 and below to extend the decline from 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.25; (P) 112.75; (R1) 113.30; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. With 111.46 minor support intact, further rise is expected. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, however, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.47; (P) 114.74; (R1) 115.19; More…

USD/JPY retreats mildly in early US session but at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside. Current development indicates near term reversal on double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). That’s whole correction from 118.65 is completed at 111.58. Further rally would be seen to retest 118.65 resistance. Break will resume whole rally from 98.97 and target 125.85 high next. On the downside, break of 113.60 support is now needed to indicate completion of the current rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.36; (P) 109.59; (R1) 109.98; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.55; (P) 156.92; (R1) 157.30; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains mildly on the upside. Rise from 161.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, should now target 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 155.83 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 153.69 will target 151.86 and below as the third leg.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.96; (P) 109.32; (R1) 110.06; More…

Break of 109.68 resistance suggests that rebound from 107.47 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, however, break of 108.34 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below. Overall, USD/JPY was once again supported by 55 day EMA, which gives mild near term bullish favor.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.37; (P) 113.77; (R1) 114.13; More…

A temporary top is in place at 114.16 with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. We’re still favoring the case that correction from 118.65 has completed at 111.58. Above 114.16 will target 115.37 resistance first. Break will confirm this bullish case and bring retest of 118.65 high. Meanwhile, below 112.85 minor support will dampen this bullish view and could extend the correction from 118.65. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.57; (P) 156.33; (R1) 157.52; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20 high. Nevertheless, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside for 151.86 support and possibly below, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 147.77) holds, fall from 160.20 is seen as correcting the rise from 140.25 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.43; (P) 108.65; (R1) 108.88; More…

USD/JPY’s decline continues today and reaches as low as 107.41 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside and break of 107.31 will target 106.48 fibonacci level. We’d look for strong support around there to bring rebound. However, on the upside, break of 108.80 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.26; (P) 111.69; (R1) 111.92; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. The rebound from 110.23 is still seen as a correction even though it might extend. On the downside, below 110.85 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 low. Break there will resume the whole decline from 118.65. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.85; (P) 113.14; (R1) 113.57; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 113.68 temporary low. Downside of retreat should be contained by 111.72 support to bring another rally. Above 113.68 will target 114.36 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm our bullish view that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.60; (P) 113.27; (R1) 113.92; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside as fall from 118.65 is still in progress. Such decline would target 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. However, such fall is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 111.13 to contain downside an bring rebound. On the upside, above 115.36 resistance will argue that such correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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