Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.48; (P) 106.83; (R1) 107.28; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 105.54 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Also, with 108.27 resistance intact, outlook remains mildly bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.40; (P) 112.67; (R1) 113.01; More….

USD/JPY is still bounded tight range below 113.25 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.37; (P) 113.77; (R1) 114.13; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 111.58 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Correction from 118.65 should have completed at 111.58, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rally would be seen to 115.36 resistance. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 high next. In that case, the larger rally from 98.97 could be resuming. On the downside, below 112.85 minor support will dampen this bullish view and could extend the correction from 118.65. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.67; (P) 110.16; (R1) 110.46; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 110.94 resistance intact, outlook stays bearish and deeper decline is still expected. On the downside, below 109.53 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 108.12 support first. Firm break of 108.12 support will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. In that case, USD/JPY will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 110.94 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back towards 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.16; (P) 113.37; (R1) 113.67; More…

USD/JPY edges higher to 113.68 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise from 110.83 would extend to 114.73 key near term resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise form 107.31. More importantly, that will confirm completion of medium term correction from 118.65 at 107.31. In that case, retest of 118.65 should be seen next. However, break of 111.98 support will extend the correction from 114.73 with another fall, possibly to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14 before completion.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed a 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.04; (P) 114.71; (R1) 115.22; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Below 112.56 will extend the corrective fall from 118.65. In that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 115.61 will target a test on 118.65 first. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.39; (P) 150.61; (R1) 150.94; More…

USD/JPY retreats mildly ahead of 150.87 resistance as consolidation continues. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 150.87 will resume 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 140.25 is seen as resuming the trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Decisive break of 151.89/.93 resistance zone will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. However, break of 148.79 resistance turned support will delay this bullish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 151.89 with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.67; (P) 112.29; (R1) 112.79; More…

USDJPY jumped to 112.91 but failed to break through near term channel resistance and retreated. A temporary top is formed and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Near term outlook stays cautiously bullish as long as 110.94 support holds. Sustained break of the channel resistance argue that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.94 will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for this support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.99; (P) 112.44; (R1) 113.20; More…

USD/JPY rebounds strongly today but stays below 114.94 so far and intraday bias remains neutral first. Price actions from 118.65 are viewed as a corrective move. Firm break of 114.94 resistance will indicate that it’s completed, on a double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the upside for retesting 118.65. Also, the whole rise from 98.97 is likely resuming. On the downside, in case of another fall, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.01; (P) 113.53; (R1) 113.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. As it’s still holding on to 112.95 support, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, sustained break of 114.49 key resistance will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.53; (P) 106.83; (R1) 107.15; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.54 is still in progress. Outlook also remains bearish with 108.27 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.85; (P) 106.53; (R1) 106.90; More…

USD/JPY’s medium term decline from 118.65 resumed by breaking 105.54 and reaches as low as 105.24 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Firm break there will target 98.97 key support level. On the upside, above 106.37 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 107.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.35; (P) 112.70; (R1) 113.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the upside for 113.43 resistance. Break there will resume the rise from 107.31 and target 114.49 resistance. More importantly current development revives the case that correction from 118.65 has completed at 107.31. Decisive break of 114.49 will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 111.64 will mixed up the outlook again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.84; (P) 107.25; (R1) 107.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 106.37 minor support will bring retest of 105.54 low. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

USD/JPY reversed after spiking higher to 160.20 last week, and fell sharply since then. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. But strong support should be seen from 150.87 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Above 153.81 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.