USDJPY Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 159.99 will resume the rally from 155.01. Strong resistance should be seen from 160.71 high to limit upside. On the downside, break of 159.08 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 158.46) and below.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.55) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 159.64 temporary top. Rise from 155.01 should continue to retest 160.71 high. Strong resistance should be seen there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 159.08 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.55) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 155.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.71. While another rally cannot be ruled out, strong resistance should be seen from 160.71 to bring reversal. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 158.74 support will argue that the rise from 155.01 has completed already. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 158.40) and below.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.55) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.