USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.01; (P) 145.97; (R1) 146.64; More…

USD/JPY’s consolidation from 151.93 is extending and deeper decline could be seen. But downside downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 148.84 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.31; (P) 107.03; (R1) 107.48; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.54 is extending. Outlook remains bearish with 108.27 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 107.72 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.53; (P) 134.04; (R1) 134.90; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 134.55 is still extending. Downside of retreat should be contained above 131.34 resistance turned support. Break of 134.55 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.28; (P) 150.52; (R1) 150.76; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 150.87 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 150.87 will resume 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 140.25 is seen as resuming the trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Decisive break of 151.89/.93 resistance zone will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. However, break of 148.79 resistance turned support will delay this bullish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 151.89 with another falling leg

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.79; (P) 111.14; (R1) 111.65; More…

USD/JPY’s fall continues today and reaches as low as 110.10 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside and the fall from 118.65 would target 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42 and possibly below. On the upside, break of 111.57 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook stays mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.11) will indicates that such consolidation is not completed. And another fall would be seen back to 98.97 as the third leg. In that case, downside would be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.95 at 94.77 to complete the correction. On the upside, above 115.49 will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85 first. Overall, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume after the consolidation from 125.85 completes.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.12; (P) 115.50; (R1) 116.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as decline from 118.65 continues, target 55 day EMA (now at 113.10) and below. At this point, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 116.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.21; (P) 115.48; (R1) 115.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.08; (P) 113.59; (R1) 113.93; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Some more consolidation could be seen below 114.09 temporary top. But in any case, will remain mildly bullish as long as 111.64 support holds. Above 114.09 will target 114.49 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm that correction pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. And USD/JPY should then target a test on 118.65.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completed. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.98; (P) 135.92; (R1) 137.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 137.66 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 142.24 resistance first. However, before, another decline could still be seen to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level or further to 55 week EMA.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.31; (P) 107.03; (R1) 107.48; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.54 is extending. Outlook remains bearish with 108.27 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 107.72 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.40; (P) 110.65; (R1) 110.92; More…

With 109.91 minor support, further rise is still in favor for 111.39 resistance. Break there will resume larger rebound from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 109.91 will turn bias to the downside and bring another fall towards 108.10 to extend the corrective pattern from 111.39.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.43; (P) 109.83; (R1) 110.17; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.86; (P) 111.93; (R1) 112.00; More…

USD?JPY breached 111.69 minor support briefly but quickly recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 112.13 will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, firm break of 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.15; (R1) 110.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Despite the strong rebound from 109.36, it’s staying in range below 110.89. On the upside, break of 110.89 will resume the rise from 108.10 and target 111.39. Firm break there will resume the rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. On the downside, below 109.36 will resume the fall from 110.89. In that case, as price actions from 111.39 are seen as a corrective pattern, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.05; (P) 109.33; (R1) 109.81; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 108.59 temporary low. Near term outlook stays bearish with 110.94 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Break of 108.59 will target a test on 108.12 low. Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, firm break of 110.94 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.75; (R1) 109.02; More…

Focus is back on 108.49 minor support intact USD/JPY. Break will suggests that rebound from 106.78 has completed with three waves up to 109.31. Further fall would then be seen back to 106.78/107.21 support zone. On the upside, break of 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 will target 161.8% projection at 110.78.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.47; (P) 108.99; (R1) 109.88; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. While the rebound from 107.31 is strong, it’s limited below 110.66 resistance so far. Outlook remains bearish and another fall is still expected. Break of 107.31 will extend the whole fall from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 first. We’d look for support from there to bring rebound. But firm break of 106.48 will extend the decline to 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.49 at 103.96 or below. On the upside, firm break of 110.66 will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.80; (P) 109.00; (R1) 109.17; More…

USD/JPY recovers after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays below 109.28/31 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 109.28/31 resistance will firstly resume rise from 104.45 low. It will also be an early sign of medium term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 112.40 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 107.88 will turn bias to the downside for 106.48 support next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and hit as high as 139.37. With a temporary top in place, initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained by 134.73 support. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.06; (P) 113.44; (R1) 113.94; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral first. And, with 112.56 minor support intact, another rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, above 113.81 will extend the rebound from 113.37 to 114.54 resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 112.56 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed. And, in that case, the corrective pattern from 114.54 could have started the third leg for 111.37 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.