Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.79; (P) 115.05; (R1) 115.30; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 116.33 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Deeper decline would be seen to 114.14 support. On the upside, however, break of 115.86 will turn bias back to the upside for 116.34 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.31) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.87; (P) 109.04; (R1) 109.31; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 108.73 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 109.65 minor resistance holds. Break of 108.73 will target 107.65 key support. However, break of 109.65 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.28 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise form 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.88; (P) 111.29; (R1) 111.52; More…

USD/JPY drops sharply to as low as 110.28 so far as fall from 112.40 accelerates. Break of 110.84 support adds to the case of bearish reversal. That is, whole rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.40 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 109.71 support. Decisive break will confirm this bearish case and targets retesting 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 111.70 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, outlook will now remain cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. However, sustained break of 109.71 will raise the chance that fall from 118.65 is still in progress for another low below 104.62.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.50; (P) 157.87; (R1) 158.21; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally would be in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 160.20 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 150.25 only. Another rally is still expected at a later stage through 160.02 to resume the larger up trend. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.43; (P) 113.57; (R1) 113.83; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 113.96 so far. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally from 104.62 should target 114.73 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. On the downside, below 113.31 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.82; (P) 109.11; (R1) 109.53; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.69 is still in progress and turns out to be stronger than originally expected. Intraday bias stays on the upside and break of 109.46 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and above. On the downside, below 107.77 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.65; (P) 110.88; (R1) 111.35; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 111.71 resistance. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64. On the downside, break of 110.41 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.55; (R1) 111.92; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 107.31 extends to as high as 112.62 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for medium term channel resistance (now at 113.03). Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 118.65 has completed too. In that case, further rise should be seen to 114.49 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 111.07 minor resistance will raise the risk of rejection from channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 110.53).

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.26; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.81; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 109.02 temporary low is extending. Further decline is expected as long as 110.04 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, break of 110.04 minor resistance will indicate short term bottom. Lengthier consolidation could then be seen before another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.75; (P) 109.86; (R1) 109.99; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. Further rally is in favor as long as 109.53 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 110.28 will resume whole rally from 104.45. Though, break of 109.53 will turn bias to the downside for 108.30 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.25; (P) 109.46; (R1) 109.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point, and risk stays on the downside with 110.79 resistance intact. On the downside, below 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.39; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.91; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and risk stays on the downside with 110.32 resistance intact. Corrective rise from 107.47 could have completed at 110.32 already. Break of 109.17 will target 108.55 support first. Break there should indicate that pattern from 110.95 has started the third leg already and target 107.47 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.80; (P) 149.09; (R1) 149.52; More…

There is no clear sign of topping in USD/JPY yet even though it continues to lose upside moment. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% projection of 130.38 to 140.33 from 145.89 at 149.91. Yet, beware that Japan might intervene again to defend 150 psychological level. On the downside, break of 146.43 minor support will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is not clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 139.37 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.35; (P) 109.51; (R1) 109.78; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and risk stays on the downside with 110.32 resistance intact. Corrective rise from 107.47 should have completed at 110.32. Below 109.17 will target 108.55 support first. Break there should indicate that pattern from 110.95 has started the third leg already and target 107.47 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.63; (P) 108.79; (R1) 109.00; More..

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as consolidation form 109.35 is still extending. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 108.33 minor support intact, the consolidation should be brief. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the larger rise from 102.58 long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.40; (P) 111.57; (R1) 111.83; More…

USD/JPY is staying in tight range between 111.24 and 112.14. Intraday bias stays neutral first. With 111.24 minor support intact, further rise is still mildly in favor. Above 112.14 will target 113.17 resistance next. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 104.62 for 114.73 key resistance next. On the downside, below 111.24 minor support might extend the corrective fall from 113.17 with another decline. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.85; (P) 107.03; (R1) 107.18; More…

USD/JPY is drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA again and recovered. But it’s staying in range of 106.64/107.77. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise is mildly in favor and break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.12; (P) 107.50; (R1) 107.97; More...

USD/JPY’s break of 107.64 resistance suggest short term bottoming at 106.07, and completion of fall from 109.85. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 109.85 first. Break will argue that larger rebound from 101.18 might be resuming to 112.22 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.79 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 106.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.60; (P) 117.91; (R1) 118.52; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 118.65 long term resistance next. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63. On the downside, below 117.78 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first. But retreat should be contained by 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.20; (P) 138.67; (R1) 138.94; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 139.37 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 134.73 support. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.