Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.82; (P) 109.11; (R1) 109.53; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.69 is still in progress and turns out to be stronger than originally expected. Intraday bias stays on the upside and break of 109.46 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and above. On the downside, below 107.77 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.45; (P) 132.04; (R1) 133.04; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 135.10 resistance holds. The current favored case is that rebound from 127.20 has completed at 137.90 already. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28 will pave the way to retest 127.20 low next. However, break of 135.10 will turn bias back to the upside for 137.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.80; (P) 109.90; (R1) 110.02; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 110.21 temporary top. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 109.24 minor support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 110.21 will extend whole rise from 104.45 to 100% projection of 106.48 to 109.72 from 107.65 at 110.89 next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.43; (P) 109.65; (R1) 110.09; More…

USD/JPY’s rise from 104.62 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally would target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next. On the downside, below 109.50 minor support will indicate temporary topping. And, intraday bias would be turned neutral for consolidation, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.78).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.74; (P) 111.21; (R1) 111.67; More...

USD/JPY’s fall from 111.71 extends lower today but it’s staying well above 106.75 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first and further rally is still mildly in favor. Decisive break of 112.22 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, break of 106.75 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s sharp fall last week suggests short term topping at 109.72. But downside is contained above 108.27 support so far. Thus, near term outlook stays bullish for further rise. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.12; (P) 111.28; (R1) 111.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s bounded in consolidation below 111.78 temporary top. Further rise is favor with 110.63 minor support intact. Above 111.78 will target channel resistance (now at 112.87). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.63 will turn bias back to the downside for 108.81 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.18; (P) 108.35; (R1) 108.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, sustained break of 108.80 will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. In this case, stronger rise should be seen back to 110.67 resistance. On the other hand, rejection by 108.80, followed by break of 107.56 will retain near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 106.78 support instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.05; (P) 109.33; (R1) 109.81; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly today but it’s staying well below 110.94 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral with bearish outlook. Deeper decline is still expected. Break of 108.59 will target a test on 108.12 low. Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, firm break of 110.94 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.34; (P) 141.85; (R1) 142.41; More…

Further rise in favor in USD/JPY as long as 141.20 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48 would extend the rise from 127.20 towards 151.93 high. However, break of 141.20 minor support will be the first sign of rejection by 142.48, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 137.77).

In the bigger picture, rise from 151.93 are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58. The first leg has completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg, and should be limited below 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 137.47) will argue that the third leg has started back to 127.20 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.54; (P) 113.65; (R1) 113.87; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 112.52/113.94 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.09; (P) 156.43; (R1) 156.78; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 155.25 minor support argues that rebound from 151.86 has completed already. Fall from 156.78 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 151.86 support and possibly below. On the upside, however, break of 156.78 will resume the rebound from 151.86 to 157.98 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.74; (P) 108.10; (R1) 108.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 108.47 first. With 107.45 minor support intact, further rise cannot be ruled out. But we’d continue to look for topping sign as it approaches this 109.31 key resistance. On the downside, break of 107.45 minor support will suggest that rebound from 104.45 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside. Break of 106.68 resistance turned support will confirm and target 104.45 low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY’s steep pull back from 150.15 last week indicates short term topping. More consolidations would be seen in the near term. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Another falling leg could be seen, but in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75. On resumption, next target would be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.74; (P) 112.00; (R1) 112.49; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and hit as high as 112.74 so far. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend from 102.58 should target 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. On the downside, below 112.12 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained above 110.81 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support hold, even in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.53; (P) 109.69; (R1) 110.00; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 110.38 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained break of long term channel resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, below 109.70 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 108.40 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.00). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.82; (P) 109.11; (R1) 109.53; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside. The rebound from 104.69 is likely stronger than originally expected. Break of 109.46 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and above. On the downside, below 107.77 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.21; (P) 128.64; (R1) 129.75; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. Correction from 131.34 short term top would extend lower to 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86), as correction to rise from 114.40. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 131.34 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.35; (P) 109.65; (R1) 109.85; More…

With 109.14 minor support intact, USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.69 might still extend further to 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. But in that case, we’d look for topping signal above there. On the downside, break of 109.14 minor support will be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.93; (P) 130.43; (R1) 131.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with as fall from 137.90 lost momentum after hitting 129.62. Some consolidations could be seen first. But outlook stays bearish as long as 132.99 resistance holds. Break of 129.62 will target a test on 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 151.93 to 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is still in progress. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.