Thu, Dec 01, 2022 @ 12:47 GMT
HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisRisk Aversion Remains on Front Burner Due to Geo-Political Concerns

Risk Aversion Remains on Front Burner Due to Geo-Political Concerns


  • Geo-political concerns of potential expanded US involvement in regional hot spots (Korea, Mid-East)
  • Focus centered on North Korea as it approaches the key Apr 15th birthday of its founder Kim Il-sung for potential nuclear test
  • Market participation non-existent in wake of holidays in Far East, Europe and US



  • PBoC resumed its open market operations for the 1st time in 13 sessions and injected CNY110B combined in 7, 14, and 28-day reverse repos


  • France IFOP daily presidential poll: Second round poll: Macron 58.5, Le Pen 41.5% (unchanged)


  • Canadian Government: introduces legislation to legalize recreational Marijuana; intends to provide regulated, restricted access to Cannabis no later than July 2018


  • Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 847 v 839 w/w (+1%)(13th straight weekly rise)

Economic Data

  • (CN) China Mar M2 Money Suppy Y/Y: 10.6% v 11.1%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 18.8% v 19.3%e, M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.1% v 4.0%e
  • (CN) China Mar New Yuan Loans (CNY): 1.020T v 1.200Te
  • (CN) China Mar Aggregate Financing (CNY): 2.120T v 1.50Te

Fixed Income Issuance:

  • None seen



  • Closed for Good Friday holiday


  • Italy said to be considering a deficit higher than the 1.2% of GDP forecasted in its 2018 budget draft
  • Bank of Japan (BOJ) said to be offering a more upbeat view of economy and exports


  • FX markets were at a standstill with most of Europe closed for Good Friday holiday. The USD still unable to shrugged off recent comments from President Trump on his concern of a too strong of a greenback.
  • USD/JPY hovered near its recent 5-month low and again tested its 200-day moving average. The pair holding below the 109 level. The 200-day MA has not be breeched since Trump won the US election back in early Nov.

Looking Ahead

  • 07:00 (IL) Israel Mar CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.4% prior
  • 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves
  • 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.8%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 8.6%e v 8.2% prior
  • 08:30 (US) Mar CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.7% prior
  • 08:30 (US) CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.2% prior
  • 08:30 (US) Mar CPI Index NSA: 244.237e v 243.603 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 251.651e v 251.299 prior
  • 08:30 (US) Mar Advance Retail Sales M/M: -0.2%e v +0.1% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior, Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior, Retail Sales Control Group: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
  • 08:30 (US) Mar Real Avg Weekly Earnings M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Real Avg Hourly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior
  • 10:00 (US) Feb Business Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior
  • (LU) Luxembourg Sovereign Debt to be rated by Fitch


  • Sunday (TR) Turkey holds referendum on presidential system
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