Market Movers ahead
- The next scheduled date for the trade disputes is 30 June, where the US government is set to announce plans for restricting Chinese investments.
- The European Council meeting on 28-29 June will be important for whether the German government crisis is resolved, what line the new Italian government takes and possibly for the Brexit process.
- We expect the June inflation number for the euro area to be 2%, up from 1.9%, but it is likely to decline again later this year.
- The most important US inflation measure is likely to have increased in May.
- Swedish data is likely to show another trade deficit in May.
Global macro and market themes
- A further escalation in trade tensions has become our baseline scenario ahead of 6 July.
- The escalation will weigh on global economic growth.
- Equity volatility will be high, with downside risks for equities near term.
- Industrial and agricultural commodities are primarily at risk.
- The prospects of a stronger USD, lower commodity prices and weaker global growth weigh on emerging markets.
