Market movers ahead
- The market will monitor incoming opinion polls ahead of the second round of the French Presidential election.
- The FOMC is set to meet on Wednesday. We do not expect major changes in monetary policy or the statement.
- We expect the US labour market report to show employment gains of 170,000 in April.
- We look for small declines in April’s Chinese manufacturing PMI and the US ISM manufacturing indices due for publication next week.
- FX reserve data is due in Denmark and Norges Bank is set to meet next week. We do not expect major changes in either announcement though.
Global macro and market themes
- Markets are less worried about France, as Emmanuel Macron is the clear favourite against Marine Le Pen.
- Do not get overexcited about Trumponomics.
- With markets less worried about political uncertainty in Europe, focus may soon return to economics.
- We do not expect much action at next week’s Fed meeting.
- The rising risk from North Korea is a joker.
Focus
- Tensions are rising fast between the US and North Korea and are likely to escalate further if North Korea continues with plans to carry out a nuclear test