EUR/USD has started the new trading week with a yawn. In the Monday session, the pair is trading at 1.1379, down 0.08% on the day. On the release front, eurozone investor confidence slumped in November, dropping to 8.8 points. Later in the day, the U.S releases ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to drop to 59.3 points. On Tuesday, Germany and the eurozone release services PMIs. As well, Germany releases factory orders and the eurozone will publish PPI. The U.S will release JOLTS Job Openings and all eyes will be on the U.S midterm congressional elections.
The eurozone economy ran into some headwinds in the third quarter, and there are concerns that the slowdown could continue in Q4 as well. The well-respected Sentix investor confidence report fell from 11.3 to 8.8 points, its lowest level since October 2016. The index has dropped sharply in 2018 – the heady days of January, when the index came in at 32.9, appear long gone.
Is the German manufacturing sector in trouble? Manufacturing slowed for a third straight month in October, as the slowdown has now entered the fourth quarter. The October Manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.2, down from 53.7 points in September. The reading, which points to limited expansion, is the lowest since May 2016. The weak data can be directly attributed to global trade tensions, which have dampened the German export sector. China is Germany’s third largest export market, and a slowdown in China due to U.S trade tariffs could have a chilling effect on the German economy. The German central bank is forecasting zero growth in the third quarter, and growth in the eurozone also softened in the third quarter.
The U.S economy continues to perform well, a fact that will be hammered home by President Trump and the Republicans in the few hours left until Election Day on Tuesday. The labor market is at or beyond capacity, and nonfarm payrolls surged to 250 thousand, crushing the estimate of 194 thousand. Wage growth has also strengthened, with strong gains of 3.1% in the past year. Despite these strong numbers, the dollar failed to make headway on Friday, as reports that President Trump will present his Chinese counterpart with a trade deal proposal increased risk appetite and weighed on the greenback.
