China Q4 GDP Data Seen Next Week

Jan 18 19, 07:38 GMT

General Trend:

Hong Kong listed property developer Jiayuan International rises over 90% (said to have made note payment), declined over 75% prior session
Rio Tinto rises over 0.5% following quarterly production update
Nidec declines after recent profit warning
On Thursday, it was reported that Treasury Sec Mnuchin was said to support lifting China trade tariffs to break stalemate, but Trade Rep Lighthizer is pushing back against easing tariffs (press)
The US Treasury Dept later issued the following response: neither Mnuchin or Lighthizer has made any recommendations to anyone with respect to tariffs or other parts of the talks with

China

Japan Dec CPI eases, there is speculation the BoJ may trim inflation forecast at next week’s meeting (Jan 22-23rd)
China’s Q4 GDP figures are expected to be released on Jan 21st (Monday)

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

ASX 200 opened +0.4%
Rio Tinto[ RIO.AU] Reports Q4 Pilbara Iron Ore production 86.6 Mt, -1% y/y; Shipments 87.4 Mt v Mte v 90.0Mt y/y; Guides initial FY19 Pilbara shipments 338-350Mt v 348Mte
(NZ) New Zealand Dec Business Manufacturing PMI: 55.1 v 53.7 prior

China/Hong Kong

Shanghai Composite opened +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.9%
(CN) US and China said to be in discussions to reopen China’s markets to chicken exports from the US – press
(CN) According to Nikkei estimates, China 2019 tax reduction program is projected to exceed CNY1.5T, program expected to be announced in March
(CN) For the week, PBoC injected net CNY1.16T in its open market operation v CNY410B net drain w/w
(CN) China PBoC sets Yuan Reference Rate: 6.7665 v 6.7592 prior
(CN) China to target 2019 GDP growth of 6.0-6.5% (in line with prior report from Jan 11th) – China Daily
(CN) China revises 2017 GDP growth lower to 6.8% v 6.9% prior – Stats Agency

Japan

Nikkei 225 opened +0.4%
(JP) JAPAN DEC NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 0.3% V 0.3%E (7-month low); CPI EX-FRESH FOOD (CORE) Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.8%E
(JP) Japan Government Official: No change to government’s view inflation accelerating ‘moderately’ as a trend
(JP) Japan Finance Min Aso: Reiterates making changes to budget due to wages issue, [as a result] FY19 will have ¥700M in additional JGB issuance
(JP) Japan Nov Final Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v -1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4% prelim
(JP) Japan Cabinet Office Official: BoJ Gov Kuroda expects US/China trade friction to be ‘resolved’ this year

Korea

Kospi +0.4%
(KR) North Korea official Kim Yong Chol has arrived at airport in Washington D.C. – South Korean Press
(US) Trump administration missile defense review: North Korea poses an extraordinary threat despite peace efforts; US won’t accept limitations on missile defense development against ‘rogue states’

Other

(MY) Malaysia Finance Ministry: To issue up to ¥200B in 10-year Samurai bonds, coupon seen below 0.65%

North America

(US) White House: President Trump and Treasury Sec Mnuchin to hold oval office meeting on Friday
(US) US House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Neal: Treasury Sec Mnuchin has declined request to testify next week over partial government shutdown; Treasury Dept has instead offered to send sr officials to testify, said a US financial press report
(US) Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R): Democrats want ‘power grab’ not negotiation
(US) White House: President Trump cancels delegation trip to Davos, cites US government shutdown
(US) Fed’s Quarles (hawk, voter): the real US economic data is ‘very strong’; Dec job data was a ‘very big number’ – remarks in NYC
(US) Fed’s Evans (dove, voter): Believe we are about 75 basis points below what would be a slightly restrictive fed funds rate

Europe

(UK) Northern Ireland’s DUP Party reportedly edging towards a customs union – UK’s Times
(CN) China and Germany Joint Statement: Support role of the G-20, committed to expand bilateral opening up

Levels as of 01:00ET

Nikkei 225, +1.3%, ASX 200 +0.5%, Hang Seng +1.1%; Shanghai Composite +1%; Kospi +0.6%
Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%, Dax flat; FTSE100 +0.1%
EUR 1.1408-1.1385 ; JPY 109.39-109.05 ; AUD 0.7206-0.7177 ;NZD 0.6775-0.6748
Feb Gold -0.1% at $1,291/oz; Feb Crude Oil +1% at $52.59/brl; Feb Copper flat at $2.697/lb