Notes/Observations

  • China’s leaders to shift focus to reform and restructure as economy stabilizes.

Asia:

  • China Politburo saw downward economic pressure as structural in nature, external economic environment was ‘tightening’ and would step up proactive fiscal policy.
  • Japan ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost the Lower House by-elections in Okinawa and Osaka
  • South Korea President Moon might deliver a message from US President Trump to North Korea leader Kim if a new inter-Korean summit takes place Europe/Mideast:
  • Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has named Brigadier General Hossein Salami as the head of the country’s Revolutionary Guards (first change since late 2007)

Energy:

  • US said to be planning to end sanctions waivers related to Iran oil imports. US expected to say that all countries that import oil from Iran would have to end these shipments shortly or face US sanctions (Reminder: On Nov 5th 2018, the US reimposed sanctions on Iran oil transactions, hitting core industries of oil, banking and shipping. US issued waivers to eight countries (China, India, Italy, South Korea, Turkey, Taiwan, Greece, and Japan) which allowed them to continue importing Iranian crude oil)

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

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Indices [S&P 500 Futures -0.3%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Corporate activity is very limited today as the majority of European markets are closed in observance of Easter Monday. Looking ahead notable earners include Halliburton, Kimberly-Clark, Grainger and Lennox International.

Speakers

  • China Central Financial Committee reiterated plan to increase financial support for real economy; to fine tune monetary policy on growth and prices
  • Saudi Arabia said to be willing to increase oil production to compensate for any loss of supply if US ended waivers on Iranian oil sanctions. Saudi Arabia must first see impact on markets if US makes such a move

Currencies/Fixed Income

  • FX markets were little changed in thin post-holiday trade with numerous FX centers closed for Easter Monday holidays in both the Far East and Europe. The major pairs were confined to a narrow range.
  • EUR/USD steady at 1.1245 area while USD/JPY still unable to make a clear break above the 112 level. Focus on the upcoming BOJ policy decision later this week. BoJ said to likely to consider slight downgrades to growth and inflation forecasts in its quarterly outlook
  • Emerging market countries (Indonesia, India, Turkey) with high current account deficits were under pressure as higher oil prices sparked renewed concerns

Economic Data

  • (JP) Japan Mar Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: 0.0% v 2.0% prior
  • (MY) Malaysia mid-Apr Foreign Reserves: $103.5Bv $103.0B prior
  • (TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Confidence: 63.5 v 59.4 prior
  • (TW) Taiwan Mar Export Orders Y/Y: -9.0% v -5.0%e
  • (TW) Taiwan Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.7% v 3.7%e

**Fixed Income Issuance**

  • None seen

Looking Ahead

  • (PT) Portugal Feb Current Account Balance: No est v -€0.7B prior
  • 06:00 ((RO) Romania to sell RON500M in 4% 2021 bonds
  • 05:30 (SL) Sri Lanka Mar National CPI (NCPI ) Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior
  • 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
  • 08:30 (US) Mar Chicago Fed National Activity Index: +2.55e v -0.29 prior
  • 09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar CNI Industrial Confidence: No est v 61.9 prior
  • 09:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
  • – 10:00 (US) Mar Existing Home Sales: 5.30Me v 5.51M prior
  • 11:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Trade Balance: -$0.8Be v -$1.0B prior; Total Imports: $4.0Be v $4.3B prior
  • 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
  • 15:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.2% prior
  • (AR) Argentina Mar Budget Balance (ARS): No est v 6.7B prior
  • (MX) Mexico Citibanamex Survey of Economists
  • 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report
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