Notes/Observations
Asia:
- China Foreign Min says China will take countermeasures to U.S. bullying; Hopes the US can come back to the right track and reach a mutually beneficial agreement
- Earlier Foreign Min Geng had said US repeatedly tried to change the terms of the negotiations midway through the talks, going against agreement made in Dec
- China April Industrial production and Retail sales fall short of forecasts
- BoJs Kuroda to not consider additional easing now but reiterates additional easing if price momentum is lost
Europe/Mideast:
- German and Eurozone prelim GDP comes in line with forecasts
- European Stocks pare losses from earlier weakness as trade concerns continue; Bund yields reach 3 year low
- Downing street confirms Brexit vote will take place in early June
Energy:
- Cuts 2019 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.3M bpd from 1.4M bpd
- IEA’s Atkinson: Lower oil-demand growth outlook ‘modest’, no demand shock
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Equities
- Indices [Stoxx600 -0.10% at 375.98, FTSE +0.30% at 7,263.30, DAX -0.16% at 11,972.48, CAC-40 -0.35% at 5,322.88, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 9,109.19, FTSE MIB -0.69% at 20,748.50, SMI -0.05% at 9,399.00, S&P 500 Futures -0.01%]
Market Focal Points/Key Themes:
Equities
- European Indices trade mainly lower across the board erasing initial gains after some risk-aversion flows coming in U.S. futures following China’s Foreign Ministry comments on trade tensions.
- On the earnings front shares of Leoni trade sharply lower after disappointing earnings. Dutch-based financial giant ABN AMRO trades 2.5% lower after miss on profits. In the U.K. both Kingfisher and Aston Martin trade lower after providing Q1 figures and affirming their outlook, while Compass Group is among notable risers. Stocks of Salvatore Ferragamo traded in Italy rose as much as 10% this morning after reporting Q1 results yesterday after the close.
- Meanwhile on the corporate front shares of Commerzbank rise 2.5% and shares of Unicredit fall 1.5% on press report that Unicredit has hired advisors on potential acquisition of Commerzbank. Shares of another German bank Deutsche Bank trade lower almost 1.5% on raids in its Frankfurt office related to tax probe.
- Looking ahead, notable earners include Alibaba, Macy’s, Embraer and Stars Group.
- Consumer discretionary: TUI [TUI1.DE] -1.5% (earnings), William Hill [WHM.UK] -0.5% (trading update), Aston Martin [AML.UK] -0.5% (earnings), Salvatore Ferragamo [SFER.IT] +10% (earnings)
- Consumer staples: Compass [CPG.UK] +3% (earnings)
- Energy: Schibsted [SCH.NO] -3% (earnings)
- Financials: ABN AMRO [ABN.NL] -2.5% (earnings), Experian [EXPN.UK] -0.5% (earnings; buyback program), Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] -3% (earnings), Commerzbank [CBK.DE] +2.5%, Unicredit [UCG.IT] -1.5% (merger speculation), Raiffeisen [RBI.AT] -4.5% (earnings)
- Materials: LafargeHolcim [LHN.CH] +1.5% (earnings; post earnings comments)
- Industrials: Leoni [LEO.DE] -12% (earnings), Kingfisher [KGF.UK] -2.5% (earnings)
- Technology: United Internet [UTDI.DE] -3% (earnings)
- Telecom: Eutelsat [ETL.FR] -5% (sales)
Speakers
- (CN) China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang: for some time U.S. has been abusing national power to smear Chinese companies, it is not honorable
- (DE) German Economy Ministry: German Economy grew significantly in Q1 as strong domestic economy defied turbulent global environment
- (DE) German Chemical Association (VCI): Maintains 2019 Production volumes -3.5%; Sales forecast from -2.5%
- (RU) Russia EconMin Oreshkin: Russia is one of the safest from the trade ware between the US and China
- (IT) Italy Dep PM Salvini (League): no alternative to current Italy govt; EU fiscal rules old, outdated
- (UK) UK Trade Minister Liam Fox: When faced with withdrawal agreement bill lawmakers will have to consider consequences of failing to deliver Brexit deal
Currencies/ Fixed Income
- As the risk off theme seems to have abated for now and the dollar index trading higher than the previous 3 days, the markets appear to have calmed. This with comments still being exchanged between Trump and China. Both sides continue to comment that a trade war is not in the best interest of either side.
- EUR/USD With an inline preliminary GDP figure the EUR/USD continues to trade in its range of 1.12 to 1.126 while the Bund yield continues to be negative as the future approaches the 167 handle a level that failed to be broken.
- GBP/USD The cable continued its downward trend approaching the 1.29 handle as talks on Brexit continue at a slow pace. Parliament has set the date to vote on the Brexit bill during the first week of June.
- USD/CAD with Canadian CPI due out today, the CAD continues its sideways trading between 1.34 and 1.35
Economic Data
- (EU) EURO ZONE Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.2%E
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Preliminary Employment Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prior
- (DE) GERMANY Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.7%
- (IT) Italy Mar Industrial Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.1% prior
- (PL) Poland Apr Final CPI M/M: 1.1% v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2% prelim
- (PL) Poland Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.4%e
- (PT) Portugal prelim Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7% prior
- (DK) Denmark Q1 GDP Indicator Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.8% prior
Fixed Income Issuance
- Norway sells NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 1.75% 2029 Bonds; Avg Yield: 1.67%; Bid-to-cover: 3.05x
Looking Ahead
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Trade Balance: No est v €6.3B prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Property Prices M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.3% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior
- 06:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 1.50%
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 10th: No est v 2.7% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.3%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Apr Minutes
- 08:30 (US) Apr Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 1.6% prior; Retail Sales (Ex-auto) M/M: 0.7%e v 1.2% prior; Retail Sales (Ex-auto/gas): 0.4%e v 0.9% prior; Retail Sales Control Group (used for GDP purposes): 0.3%e v 1.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) May Empire Manufacturing: 8.0e v 10.1 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.9% prior; Consumer Price Index: 135.9e v 135.4 prior; CPI Core- Median Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.0% prior; CPI Core- Common Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior; CPI Core- Trim Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.1% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Trade Balance Mar: No est v €0.3B prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Apr Existing Home Sales M/M: 1.8%e v 0.9% prior
- 09:15 (US) Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Capacity Utilization: 78.7%e v 78.8% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) May NAHB Housing Market Index: 64e v 63 prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Business Inventories: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly Oil Inventories
- 11:30 (IL) Israel Apr CPI M/o: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Q1 GDP Q/o: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.8% prior
- 15:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Economic Activity Index (Monthly GD) Y/Y: 3.2%e v 2.7% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr National CPI M/M: 4.0%e v 4.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 54.7% prior
- 16:00 (US) Mar Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v $51.9B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$21.6B prior
