It’s all about the G20
We’re seeing a slightly positive start to trading on Thursday, with investors possibly expressing some optimism ahead of the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi.
It’s often not worth reading too much into these kinds of moves going into such a big event, especially when you look across a few days and see that we’re not actually far from where we started the week. It’s clear that investors are a little cautious when it comes to this meeting, given how talks collapsed previously and the fighting talk we’ve since seen from both sides.
Trump appeared very optimistic as he headed off to Osaka while warning that he’s more than happy to impose tariffs if talks fail. Trump’s dual role as both good cop and bad cop has become a common feature of these occasions though so people don’t seem to be reading too much into this.
Instead, any optimism stems primarily from how much sense a deal makes for both countries, neither of which want to see large tariffs on all imports and exports. From a markets perspective, a complete breakdown may spur some near-term weakness but with central banks waiting in the wings and prepared to cut rates, they may continue to be well supported. Let’s face it, the prospect of them has pushed US stocks back to record highs.