Market movers ahead
- The US labour market report for February will be scrutinised intensively following the recent speculation about the prospect of a Fed hike in March. We estimate a non-farm payroll of 190,000 and some reversal in average hourly earnings after weakness in wages in financial activities dragged them down in January.
- In the euro area, the ECB meeting will reveal whether the rise in inflation to the ECB’s 2.0% target has resulted in a more hawkish monetary policy stance. Despite the higher inflation, there are still no signs of an upward trend in underlying prices. Hence, we expect the ECB to stick to its dovish communication.
- In China, the National People’s Congress this weekend will reveal the new economic targets for growth and inflation for this year.
- In Scandinavia, focus is on the Norwegian regional survey, which is Norges Bank’s preferred economic indicator and particularly important as it is forward looking.
Global macro and market themes
- Reflation, Trump and European populism remain the dominant drivers of markets.
- The USD and US yields should head higher near term.
- German yields have bottomed and should rise in coming months.
- We remain bullish on US equities as Donald Trump’s policy agenda is growth supportive despite all the noise.
