Kiwi Rises After Surprise Move By RBNZ

Nov 13 19, 07:10 GMT

General Trend:

Trade/tariff uncertainty persists after Trump’s speech at the Economic Club of NY
Hang Seng declines on losses in property shares; banks drop amid reports of branch closures, money market rates rise
HK train operator MTR declines over 2%as the company announced service suspensions
Tencent is expected to report earnings after the market close in HK
Nissan Motor opened lower after guidance cut and withdrawal of dividend forecast, shares later pare losses
Japanese firms expected to report later today include Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial and Japan Display
RBNZ unexpectedly left rates unchanged, said developments since Aug do not warrant a policy change; Kiwi rises over 1% following the rate decision
Various analysts update RBNZ rate calls following the OCR decision
Fed Chair Powell is expected to deliver his ‘The Economic Outlook’ testimony before Congress on Wed at 11:00 AM ET
Powell is also expected to deliver testimony before the US House Budget Committee on Thursday (Nov 14th)
China Oct data due for release on Thursday including Industrial Production
Japan prelim Q3 GDP data due for release on Thursday
Aussie Oct jobs data also due for release on Thursday

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

ASX 200 opened +0.1%
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 WAGE PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.2%E
(AU) Australia Nov Westpac Consumer Confidence Index: 97.0 v 92.8 prior; M/M: 4.5% v -5.5% prior
(AU) Australia Port Hedland Oct Iron Ore Exports: 42.0Mt v 40.2Mt y/y v 42.4Mt m/m; Iron Ore Exports to China: 35.8Mt v 32.8Mt y/y v 36.1Mt m/m
(AU) Australia sells A$800M v A$800M indicated in 1.50% June 2031 bonds, avg yield 1.3249% v 1.1489% prior, bid to cover 3.74x v 3.86x prior
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) UNCHANGED AT 1.00%; NOT EXPECTED; Economic developments since Aug do not warrant a policy change; Cuts March 2020 OCR forecast to 0.9% from 1.08%
(NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Gov Orr: The ups and downs in econ data since Aug are broadly offsetting each other; Sees no urgency to act at this point – post rate decision press conference
(NZ) Bank of NZ (private bank): Now sees no further RBNZ cuts to OCR
(NZ) ANZ: Now sees RBNZ cutting rates in May 2020 and Aug 2020 [Reminder from Sept 6th: It was then reported that ANZ forecast that the RBNZ would cut its key rate to 0.25% by May 2020. ANZ also previously said it saw rate cuts in Nov 2019, Feb 2020 and May 2020]

China/Hong Kong

Shanghai Composite opened -0.1%, Hang Seng -1.1%
Alibaba: Said to have received exchange approval for listing in Hong Kong – China Press
(US) Pres Trump: We’re close to signing a ‘Phase 1’ trade deal with China; trade deal could happen soon; Reiterates believes China wants to make a deal; Will only sign deal if it’s good for the US and its workers; China is devaluing its currency; there is no uncertainty with regard to trade wars; If we don’t make a deal with China, we will substantially raise tariffs on Chinese imports
(CN) Tariffs are said to be emerging as ‘main’ stumbling block in efforts by the US and China to come to limited trade deal – US financial press [in line with recent speculation]
(CN) White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: wouldn’t put a timeline on China trade deal; ‘close’ means ‘close’ – CNBC interview
(CN) China PBOC sets Yuan Reference Rate: 7.0026 v 6.9988 prior
(CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips for 13th consecutive session
(HK) Hong Kong Association of Banks: Confirms some HK bank branches are closed today, notes traffic conditions
(US) US Senate Maj Leader McConnell (R-KY): criticizes Beijing policy on Hong Kong; says he’s ‘keen to work on Hong Kong measures’; ‘US should put sanctions on bad actors in Hong Kong’

Japan

Nikkei 225 opened -0.4%
(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda: Reiterates Japan isn’t evidence for modern monetary theory; BOJ is easing to achieve price target
(JP) Japan Oct PPI (CGPI) M/M: 1.1% v 1.2%e Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.3%e

Korea

Kospi opened -0.4%
(KR) KDI: Sees South Korea 2019 GDP at 2% v 2.4% prior; 2020 GDP at 2.3% v 2.5% prior
(KR) South Korea Oct Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.5%e

Europe

(ZA) Largest Platinum Union in South Africa delays signing of wage agreement – US Financial Press

Levels as of 00:20 ET

Nikkei 225, -0.9%, ASX 200 -0.8%, Hang Seng -2.2%; Shanghai Composite -0.3%; Kospi -0.9%
Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.3%; Nasdaq100 -0.4%, Dax -0.4%; FTSE100 -0.3%
EUR 1.1017-1.1006 ; JPY 109.08-108.86 ; AUD 0.6857-0.6830 ;NZD 0.6420-0.6327
Gold +0.5% at $1,460/oz; Crude Oil -0.3% at $55.63/brl; Copper flat at $2.647/lb