First time claims for unemployment benefits dipped 42K to 712K in the first week of March. The number of people on regular continuing claims fell to 4.14 million in the last week of February, but the take-up for total federal unemployment benefit programs grew in the week of February 20.
51 Weeks of Misery
Initial jobless claims fell to 712K in the first week of March. This is spitting distance from the post-pandemic low of 711K set in November, but still higher than any reading before COVID, just as it has been in each of the past 51 weeks. The outturn was better than the 725K figure expected by the consensus, however. In a nutshell, this is the least awful it has been over the past year. The pre-pandemic peak for claims was 665K, so a drop of 48K or more would place this leading indicator back into a “normal” range, but still at an elevated level.
With vaccine distribution underway, a recovery in the hard-hit leisure and hospitality sector should lead to a wave of hiring that will put millions of displaced workers back on the payroll.
That’s a Lot of People in the Safety Net
Total non-farm payrolls in the United States peaked just over a year ago in February 2020. Despite several months of hiring, there are still 9.5 million people out of work compared to that pre-pandemic peak. In addition to another round of stimulus checks, the latest relief bill that is set to be signed by President Biden tomorrow will extend a number of jobless benefits. In the context of today’s latest reading on the number of people still benefiting from these programs, keep in mind the 9.5 million jobs that are still missing since February.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) is the program to offer jobless benefits to the self-employed and gig workers. Through the week of February 20, there were 8.4 million people filing continuing claims for unemployment benefits through this program.
Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) offers an extension of unemployment benefits after the initial 13-week claims period is exhausted. Through the week of February 20, there were 5.5 million people filing continuing claims for these benefits.
The number of people getting unemployment checks from the federal government continues to grow even as regular state continuing claims figures fall.
