ECB Speak Out In Force To Keep Policy Accommodative

Notes/Observations

• Chinese PPI data likely foretold what is to come for the US.
• Germany Feb Industrial Production misses expectations; likely due to supply constraints rather than weak demand; economy poised for Q1 GDP contraction despite strong orders and confidence indicators.

Asia:

• China Mar CPI Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.3%e; PPI Y/Y: 4.4% v 3.6%e.
• PBoC Gov Yi reiterated stance to keep macroeconomic policy stable and continuous.
• China Vice Premier Liu He reiterated to implement prudent monetary policy, keep Yuan exchange rate basically stable at above reasonable and balanced levels.
• RBA Financial Stability Review: Housing Price growth being watched by regulators.

Coronavirus:

• Total global cases 133.8M (+0.6% y/y); total deaths 2.90M (+0.5% d/d)
• Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kato: Coronavirus panel had agreed to coronavirus measures to Tokyo, Kyoto, and Okinawa.
• UK Travel Taskforce stated that it would announce in Early May the categorization of each country by coronavirus threat and confirm beginning of May whether or not international travel might resume.

Europe:

• ECB’s Schnabel (Germany): Reiterates Council stance that delaying EU fiscal aid would be disastrous.

Americas:

• Fed’s Daly (non-voter, dove) stated that the economy was shaping up in positive way, however risks remained.
• US Commerce Dept added seven Chinese supercomputing entities to ‘entity list’ for their support of China’s military.
• White House Press Sec Psaki stated that US was concerned by new Russian actions in Ukraine; in talks with NATO allies about new Russian troop movements.
• US considering sending warships to the Black Sea as a demonstration of support for Ukraine amid rising Russia tensions.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -0.02% at 436.76, FTSE -0.31% at 6,920.52 , DAX 0.00% at 15,202.40 , CAC-40 +0.16% at 6,175.46 , IBEX-35 -0.54% at 8,591.00 , FTSE MIB -0.27% at 24,510.50 , SMI +0.19% at 11,228.02 , S&P 500 Futures +0.06%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes:

Equities

• European indices trade mixed across the board with French CAC 40 index slightly outperforming as Airbus shares trade 3% higher following deliveries stats yesterday; Babcock International reportedly set to write down the value of its assets by several hundred million pounds and trade about 8% lower in London; PageGroup trade as much as 10% higher after providing Q1 trading update; focus on US PPI data later today; no earnings expected in the upcoming US session ahead of new earnings season starting in the middle of next week.
• Consumer discretionary: PageGroup [PAGE.UK] +10% (trading update), TUI Group [TUI1.DE] -6% (offering)
• Industrials: Airbus [AIR.FR] +3% (deliveries), Babcock [BAB.UK] -8% (set to write down the value of its assets by several hundred million pounds)
• Materials: Versarien [VRS.UK] +12% (agreement)

Speakers

• ECB’s Rehn (Finland) reiterated stance of seeing a clear recovery in H2. Financial stability risks were great if recovery is divergent.
• ECB’s De Guindos (Spain) stated that downside risks have materialized and that Q1 would be worse than initially expected. He did see a rebound in H2.
• ECB’s Visco (Italy) Global economic upturn remains fragile; recovery hampered by slow vaccination progress. Postponing of exit from stimulus was less dangerous than winding down early.
• ECB’s Stournaras (Greece) reiterated Council view that delay in EU Recovery Fund would delay economic rebound in region. Believed too soon to taper the pandemic Bond Buying Fund in Q3.
• Italy govt said to be acceleration plans for up to $48B in borrowings.
• Italy govt said to be prepared to ease virus restrictions in most of the country. Italy Health Min Speranza due to sign in new measures on Friday, Apr 9th (today)
• Finland PM Marin stated that virus situation remained serious; to gradually begin easing restrictions towards the summer. Expected to relinquish emergency powers in April.
• China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian reiterated stance that govt was opposed to US oppressing Chinese companies (**Reminder: On Apr 8th US Commerce Dept added. seven Chinese supercomputing entities to ‘entity list’ for their support of China’s military)
• China PBoC said to push forward its digital currency research trial.
• China PBOC and CBIRC banking regulator to launch pilot scheme for cross-border capital pool to integrate use of CNY currency (Yuan) and foreign currencies in Hainan.

Currencies/Fixed Income

• USD moved off its worst level registered during the Asian session as US yields drifted higher. Dealers pointed out that the Chinese PPI data likely foretold what is to come for the US. Nonetheless, the greenback saw some of its recent gains evaporate as markets believe Fed would remain patient to make sure the economic recovery is sustained.
• EUR/USD moved off its Asian session highs of 1.1920 to probe below 1.1890 in quiet trade.
• GBP/USD continued to move lower over on concerns that the UK’s vaccine roll-out was poised to slow. Overall the Cable currency set for its worst trading week since the Brexit trade deal was made back in mid-December.

Economic data

• (NL) Netherlands Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: -2.5% v +2.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.7% v +0.6% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -4.6% v -9.9% prior.
• (FI) Finland Feb Industrial Production M/M: 3.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: +5.5 v -0.4% prior.
• (CH) Swiss Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.6%e; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 3.3% v 3.6%e.
• (DE) Germany Feb Industrial Production M/M: -1.6% v +1.5%e; Y/Y: -6.4% v -2.3%e.
• (DE) Germany Feb Current Account Balance: €18.8B v €21.3Be; Trade Balance: €18.1B v €20.3Be; Exports M/M: 0.9% v 1.0%e; Imports M/M: 3.6% v 2.1%e.
• (NO) Norway Mar CPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.4%e (3rd straight month above target)
• (NO) Norway Mar CPI Underlying M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7%e.
• (NO) Norway Mar PPI (including Oil) M/M: -0.2% v +5.4% prior; Y/Y: 18.4% v 9.7% prior.
• (DK) Denmark Feb Current Account Balance (DKK): 165B v 18.0B prior; Trade Balance: 14.0B v 7.0B prior.
• (ZA) South Africa Mar Gross Reserves: $53.0B v $53.1Be; Net Reserves: $50.9B v $51.0Be.
• (FR) France Feb Industrial Production M/M: -4.7% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -6.6% v -1.2%e.
• (FR) France Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: -4.6% v +1.0%e; Y/Y: -7.1% v -1.0% prior.
• (ES) Spain Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -1.3%e; Industrial Output NSA (unadj) Y/Y: -3.4% v -7.0% prior.
• (HU) Hungary Mar CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.7%e.
• (HU) Hungary Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.9% v -2.2%e.
• (TR) Turkey Central Bank Apr TCMB Survey of Expectations: Next 12 Months: 11.3% v 10.5% prior.
• (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 193.6K v 197.6K tons prior.
• (UK) Mar Halifax House Price Index M/M: +1.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 6.5% v 5.2% prior.
• (SE) Sweden Mar Budget Balance (SEK): 9.2B v 47.3B prior.
• (TW) Taiwan Mar Trade Balance: $3.7B v $4.4Be; Exports Y/Y: 27.1% v 20.0%e; Imports Y/Y: 27.0% v 16.2%e.
• (IT) Italy Feb Retail Sales M/M: 6.6% v 2.0%e , Y/Y: -5.7% v -6.0%e.
• (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Apr 2nd (RUB): 13.79T v 13.77T prior.
• (HU) Hungary Mar YTD Budget Balance (HUF): -1.144T v -539.7B prior.
• (GR) Greece Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.4% v 3.5% prior.
• (GR) Greece Mar CPI Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.3% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -2.0% v -1.9% prior.

Fixed income Issuance

• (IT) Italy Debt Agency Tesoro) sold €7.0B vs. €7.0B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.436% v -0.421% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.37x v 1.42x prior.

Looking Ahead

• (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Trade Balance: No est v -€0.8B prior.
• 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £3.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £1.0B and £2.0B respectively)
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IGP-M Inflation (1st Preview): 2.0%e v 2.0% prior.
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Industrial Production M/M: -0.5%e v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: -5.3%e v -4.9% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -3.0%e v -3.4% prior.
• 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Apr 2nd: No est v $579.3B prior.
• 08:00 (UR) Ukraine Mar CPI M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 7.9%e v 7.5% prior.
• 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Mar Minutes (2 meetings ago)
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 1.0%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 6.2%e v 5.2% prior.
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 08:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed.
• 08:30 (US) Mar PPI Final Demand M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 2.8% prior.
• 08:30 (US) Mar PPI (ex-food/energy) M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.5% prior.
• 08:30 (US) Mar PPI (ex-food/energy/trade) M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.2% prior.
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Net Change in Employment: +100.0Ke v +259.2K prior; Unemployment Rate: 8.0%e v 8.2% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +88.2K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +171.0K prior; Participation Rate: 64.8%e v 64.7% prior; Hourly Wage Rate: No est v 4.3% prior.
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Feb Trade Balance: $8.7Be v $8.9B prior; Exports: $29.5Be v $26.4B prior; Imports: $20.8Be v $17.5B prior.
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Q1 Preliminary Current Account Balance: $19.6Be v $6.1B prior.
• 10:00 (US) Feb Final Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prelim; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: No est v 4.9% prior.
• 10:00 (US) Fed’s Kaplan.
• 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close.
• (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Crop Report.
• 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.