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Weekly Focus: Fed Set to Hike in a Week Full of Political Events

Market movers ahead

  • We expect the Fed to hike the target range by 25bp to 0.75-1.00% on Wednesday.
  • The US debt limit suspension expires on Wednesday.
  • The Dutch general election takes place on Wednesday.
  • We expect the Trump administration to publish its budget proposal for the 2018 fiscal year (running from Q4 17 to Q3 18) next week.
  • In the UK, the next round of the parliamentary ‘ping pong’ between the Commons and the Lords has been set for Monday. PM Theresa May may trigger Article 50 as early as next week.
  • The meeting of G20 finance ministers in Germany at the end of next week may be interesting given the expectations of easier fiscal policy, especially in the US.

Global macro and market themes

  • We expect the Fed to hike next week followed by two additional hikes in 2017.
  • Equity markets have taken another leap higher as we called for.
  • However, the fixed income and oil markets seem less bullish on long-term growth prospects, as the yield curve has flattened in the US and the oil price has plummeted.
  • We expect equity markets to lose a bit of momentum in coming months.
  • However, an emerging capex boom could provide further momentum for equity markets later in 2017.

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Danske Bank
Danske Bankhttp://www.danskebank.com/danskeresearch
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