- Employment rose 231k overall, the unemployment rate fell to 7.8%
- Job gains all in part-time work, and largely in industries hardest hit by spring lockdowns, and concentrated among younger workers
- Further job market recovery expected over the summer with virus containment measures continuing to ease.
The 231k increase in employment in June was broadly in line with expectations – but retraced more than 80% of the 275k drop over April and May. The details of the increase were less impressive than the headline, with all of the gain coming from part-time work. Total hours worked actually edged slightly lower (-0.2%). But with virus containment measures continuing to ease, more sizeable labour market improvements are expected in months to come.
The June jobs increase was heavily concentrated in the high-contact service sectors which rebounded after being once again disproportionately hit by spring virus containment measures – and it was concentrated in youth aged 15-24. But those hard-hit service industries also still account for the bulk of the remaining (and still large) 340k shortfall in employment versus pre-shock (February 2020) levels – over three-quarters from the accommodation & food services sector alone, even after a 101k increase in June.
Outside of those high-contact service-sector industries, supply chain disruptions and labour shortages have become a more pressing concern than a lack of orders. Manufacturing employment edged down another 12k in June to build on a 36k May drop. Vaccine distribution has ramped up significantly and provided virus spread remains in check, there are still a lot of jobs to recoup over the second half of the year in high-contact service sectors. Beyond that, production and labour-supply capacity limits will make further gains next year harder to come by.
