Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.15 %, Shanghai Composite rose 0.75 %, Hang Seng gained 1.15 %, ASX 200 lost 0.20 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1210 (+0.70 %), Silver at $17.13 (+1.20 %), WTI Oil at $48.30, Brent Oil at $51.30
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.58, UK 10 year yield at 1.24, German 10 year yield at 0.48

News & Data:

  • Japan Machine Orders MoM (Jan): -3.20% (est -0.10%, prev 6.70%)
  • Japan Machine Orders YoY (Jan): -8.20% (est -3.70%, prev 6.70%)
  • AU Credit Card Balances (Jan): A$51.5bn (prev A$52.8bn)
  • AU Credit Card Purchases (Jan): A$24.6bn (prev A$ 27.7bn)

CFTC Positioning Data:

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  • EUR net short 59k vs 51k previous
  • GBP net short 81k vs 70k previous
  • JPY net short 54k vs 50k previous
  • AUD net long 51k vs 51k previous
  • CAD net long 29k vs 30k previous
  • CHF net short 10k vs 12k previous
  • NZD net short 4k vs 3k previous

Markets Update:

The US Dollar weakened overnight. The US employment data on Friday was solid, but since the market is already counting on a rate hike on Wednesday, it is not enough to keep the USD rally going.

The Euro broke above the level of 1.07 in Asia. It cleared a major resistance area between 1.0670 and 1.0680, and this signals that the rally could extend to 1.0825 soon.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is likely to face further pressure soon. Support is seen at 114.00/20. Should it break below that, a deeper correction seems likely.

The Aussie Dollar bounced as well. The major support area between 0.75 and 0.7520 held, and it is on its way to test 0.76 again. Should it break above 0.7620 resistance, it could have another test of 0.7740 soon.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 GMT – Italian Industrial Production
  • 13:30 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 14:00 GMT – ECB Member Constancio speaks
  • 16:30 GMT – ECB Member Praet speaks

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, March 14th

  • 07:00 GMT – German CPI
  • 10:00 GMT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Industrial Production
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 12:30 GMT – US PPI
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Current Account

Wednesday, March 15th

  • 07:45 GMT – French CPI
  • 08:15 GMT – Swiss PPI
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Claimant Count Change
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Average Hourly Earnings
  • 10:00 GMT – Italian CPI
  • 12:30 GMT – US CPI
  • 12:30 GMT – US Retail Sales
  • 14:00 GMT – US NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 14:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 18:00 GMT – Federal Reserve Rate Decision
  • 18:00 GMT – FOMC Statement
  • 18:30 GMT – FOMC Press Conference
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand GDP

Thursday, March 16th

  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Employment Change
  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Unemployment Rate
  • 03:00 GMT – Bank of Japan Rate Decision
  • 06:30 GMT – Bank of Japan Press Conference
  • 08:30 GMT – SNB Rate Decision
  • 08:30 GMT – SNB Statement
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
  • 12:00 GMT – Bank of England Rate Decision
  • 12:30 GMT – US Building Permits
  • 12:30 GMT – US Housing Starts
  • 12:30 GMT – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 12:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 17th

  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Trade Balance
  • 12:30 GMT – Canadian Manufacturing Sales
  • 13:15 GMT – US Industrial Production
  • 13:15 GMT – US Manufacturing Production
  • 14:00 GMT – US CB Leading Index
  • 14:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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