The British pound is slightly lower in the Monday session. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3724, down 0.15% on the day. The currency rose 0.98% last week, its best weekly performance since late August.
BoE’s Bailey hints at rate hike
The BoE continues to signal that it is preparing to raise interest rates shortly. The Bank has been sending a stream of hawkish messages to the markets, with Governor Bailey and other policymakers hinting that a rate hike is on its way shortly. On Sunday, Bailey said that inflation would rise higher and last longer due to the surge in energy prices, and that the central bank “will have to act” via monetary policy in order to deal with the risk of high inflation. The BoE has projected that inflation will climb over 4%, which is more than twice its target. In order to curb inflation, the BoE may respond with a series of rate hikes, which could kick off as early as November.
This would be a highly significant move, as the BoE would become the first major central bank to raise rates since the start of the Covid pandemic in early 2020. With the Bank holding its next policy meeting on November 4th, any additional hawkish comments from BoE policymakers will raise expectations that the November meeting will be a live one.
Rate fever is also rising across the pond. Last week, the FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed expects to taper its bond purchases in November or December. The minutes noted that the Fed would reduce the USD 120 billion/ month gradually, until the programme was completely terminated by July 2022. The markets have brought forward the pricing of a rate hike from December 2022 to September 2022, projecting a rate hike shortly after the tapering is complete.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
- 1.3822 is the next resistance line, followed by the round number of 1.3900
- There is support at 1.3618. Below, there is support at 1.3492