HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisEuro Dips Below 1.08 But Bounces Back After Soft US Data

Euro Dips Below 1.08 But Bounces Back After Soft US Data

  • Euro slips below 1.08 but recovers
  • German GfK consumer climate falls
  • US consumer confidence and job openings decelerate

The euro fell below the 1.08 line on Tuesday after a weak German consumer confidence report but has recovered in the North American session after soft US data. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0840, up 0.20%.

Germany is the eurozone’s largest economy and is considered the powerhouse of the bloc. That has changed dramatically as the German economy is looking more like a dead weight than a locomotive. With the economy sputtering, it’s no surprise that German business and consumer confidence is in the doldrums.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate is forecasting a reading of  -25.5 for September, down from the revised downward figure of -24.6 in August and below the consensus estimate of -24.3. This was the lowest reading since May, with consumers pointing to high inflation and concern about potential unemployment as key reasons for concern. Last week, German Ifo Business Climate fell in August for a fourth straight month to 85.7, down from an upwardly revised 87.4 and shy of the market consensus of 86.7 points.

German CPI expected to fall to 6.0%

Germany will release the July inflation report on Wednesday. Inflation is currently at 6.2% and is expected to dip to 6.0%, considerably higher than eurozone inflation which is at 5.3%. The ECB is committed to bringing inflation back to the 2% target but it’s unclear if the central bank will raise rates for an eighth straight time or take a pause and monitor how the economy is performing. The benchmark rate is relatively low at 3.75%, but the eurozone and German economies aren’t in the best shape and higher interest rates would raise the likelihood of a recession.

In the US, it was a bad day at the office.  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 106.1 in July, compared to 116.0 in August. JOLTS Jobs Openings slowed to 8.82 million in July, down from 9.16 million in June and well off the estimate of 9.46 million. The data is further evidence that the US economy is slowing as high rates continue to filter through the economy.

EUR/USD Technical

  • EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0830. The next support line is 1.0731
  • There is resistance at 1.0896 and 1.0996

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