The Non-Farm Payrolls finally released, relatively on time, and came at a small beat on expectations (64K vs 40K expected) while the Unemployment rate grew from 4.4% to 4.6%.
With downward revisions to the September data (-33K) and a -105K report for October, the labor picture is indeed softening as was highlighted by Fed’s Williams throughout a few rounds of interviews yesterday.
But for now, things are not looking scary: The January 28th Meeting is priced only at 25% of a 25 bps cut and odds for cuts modestly rose for later meetings.
Market Reactions
Market Outlook 30M Charts for S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD. December 16 – Source: TradingView
Even without extra odds for rate cuts in 2026, the US Dollar is struggling quite a lot, breaking its past day support and going towards new lows.
The Dollar Index is testing the 98.00 handle, key for mid-term momentum.
You can also witness Oil falling back to its 2025 lows but attempting a shy rebound from key levels.
Metals on the other hand, are loving the NFP report and bouncing from their relative highs consolidation.
Gold is trading between $4,250 to $4,350 and attempting to break its small-resistance, Silver is roughly doing the same but Platinum is breaking higher this morning.
Stocks are opening timidly also, gapping lower at the open but not by a wide margin.
A detailed analysis for US Indexes is coming up soon in the morning session.
A shy open in Stocks. US Indexes Daily Chart Outlook – December 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView
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