On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration’s global tariff policy, which helped U.S. stocks close slightly higher in quiet trading. However, the decision reportedly made President Trump angry, and over the weekend he announced plans to raise tariffs to 15% on imports from all countries, bringing back trade uncertainty. Stronger-than-expected U.S. Durable Goods data and Fed minutes showing policymakers divided on interest rates helped support the U.S. dollar.
In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield fell after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi promised responsible and proactive fiscal policy. Japan’s GDP was weaker than expected, and inflation slowed to 2% in January, the slowest pace in two years.
Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices higher. Bitcoin moved sideways as interest stayed low after its recent sharp drop, while gold continued to test higher levels as investors looked for safety.
Markets This Week
U.S. Stocks
The Dow Jones had a quiet week, with investors cautious about buying at higher levels. Friday’s rise, following the decision to stop tariffs, may prove short-lived if Trump responds with further action. In the short term, sideways to lower movement looks most likely, with the risk of a sharp drop if trade war fears increase. Resistance is at 50,000, 50,500, 51,000, and 51,500, while support is at 49,000, 48,500, and 48,000.
Japanese Stocks
The Nikkei moved sideways last week as investors focused on Takaichi’s new policies and whether they can support further gains. However, the weekly close below the 10-day moving average suggests a short-term pullback is more likely, especially with the market already up around 10% this year. Resistance is seen at 58,000円, 59,000円, and 60,000円, while support is at 56,000円, 55,000円, 54,000円, and 53,000円.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY held key yearly support and pushed higher after the Fed meeting suggested that U.S. interest rate cuts may take longer than some in the market expected. The rebound from support near 152 is a positive sign, but the 10-day moving average is still pointing lower. For now, looking for selling opportunities on rallies may be the better approach this week. Resistance is at 156, 158, and 159, while support is at 153, 152, 151, and 150.
Gold
Gold tested lower at the start of the week as the market struggled to move away from the key $5,000 level. A stronger U.S. dollar also encouraged some selling pressure. However, the weekly close was positive as buyers returned toward the end of the week, with concerns around U.S. trade policy supporting safe-haven demand. Resistance is seen at $5,100, $5,200, and $5,500, while support is at $4,900, $4,850, $4,800, and $4,650.
Crude Oil
Developments in Iran continue to drive crude oil price moves. Prices moved back toward resistance as tensions increased at the end of the week. A move above $67 on further escalation could offer a short-term buying opportunity for traders. However, for now, the market remains in a range despite the geopolitical risks. Resistance remains at $66.50, $70, and $75, while support is at $60, $55, and $50.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin remained out of favor last week, with prices stuck at lower levels and limited interest from traders. If trade tensions increase as Trump reacts to the block on his tariffs, this could trigger further downside pressure in the week ahead. Resistance is at $70,000, $75,000, $80,000, and $85,000, while support is at $65,000, $60,000, and $55,000.
This Week’s Focus
- Monday: U.S. Factory Orders
- Tuesday: U.S. CB Consumer Confidence
- Wednesday: Australia CPI, Japan BoJ Core, E.U. CPI
- Friday: Japan Tokyo Core CPI and Industrial Production, U.S. PPI and Construction Spending
With tariffs back in the news, market volatility could increase this week. The main economic event will be Friday’s U.S. PPI data, which may affect inflation and rate expectations. Oil traders will also watch Iran closely to see if tensions rise further.
