In focus today
Today, focus will remain on energy markets as investors look for signs of progress in resolving the Gulf oil disruptions and gauge the impact of the IEA’s record reserve release.
US January international trade data is due for release today. We think that rebounding imports will continue to widen the trade deficit in early 2026.
In Sweden, the final inflation outcome for February, along with the underlying details, is being released today. In the current situation, the focus is on the future, and February’s figures may already feel outdated. However, the details will provide valuable information on the starting point as we face turbulent global market prices. The preliminary outcome indicated CPIF excluding energy at 1.4%, CPIF at 1.7%, and CPI at 0.5%. This is the first time preliminary figures for subcategories have been published, making it interesting to see to what extent they are revised. The aggregated figures tend to hold up well.
Economic and market news
What happened yesterday
In Oil markets, the oil price jumped back at the USD100/bbl level after Iraq and Oman halted oil operations due to the war. The IEA’s announcement of a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves has failed to calm the market, likely because the decision was anticipated and lacks details on the pace and breakdown of reserve sales. The worry in the oil market seems to be both the immediate supply situation and the growing risk of a lasting impact as producers in the region continue to shut down production. The oil price traded as high as USD118/bbl on Monday and there is a clear chance it could rise to that level again or higher. Adding to upward pressure, six vessels were attacked in Gulf and Strait of Hormuz waters on Wednesday, including two tankers in Iraqi waters and four merchant ships in Gulf waters, bringing the total number of vessels struck since the conflict began to 16. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reiterated their threat to block oil exports to the US, Israel, and their allies, while military officials warned that oil prices could surge beyond USD200/bbl.
ECB Executive Board member Schnabel was on the wire yesterday, highlighting that the March forecasts will partly reflect the economic impact of the Iran conflict, noting upside inflation risks amid geopolitical uncertainty. Schnabel reiterated that policy remains in a “good place” but stressed the need to monitor the persistence of energy-price shifts closely. Meanwhile, Slovakian ECB governor Kazimir stated, “I’d say a reaction by the ECB is potentially closer than many people think,” while emphasising patience for now as the ECB prepares for its March meeting.
In the US, February CPI came in unchanged and in line with expectations, with headline inflation at 2.4% y/y and core inflation steady at 2.5% y/y. Monthly CPI rose 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.2%), while core CPI eased to 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.3%). Energy prices rebounded, but markets showed little reaction, remaining focused on oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz.
Morgan Stanley restricted redemptions at one of its private credit funds after investors sought to withdraw nearly 11% of shares, returning only 45.8% of requests for the quarter. Concerns over credit deterioration, AI disruption in software companies, and higher interest rates are weighing on the USD 2 trillion private credit market. JPMorgan has marked down loans to private credit funds, while BlackRock and Blackstone have also limited withdrawals amid surging redemption requests. Shares of private credit firms continue to face pressure as investor fears grow over valuation transparency and redemption risks.
In the euro area, governments are taking steps to shield consumers and small businesses from rising energy prices, which could lead to larger deficits and increased debt issuance. Croatia implemented a binding cap on fuel prices two days ago, while Greece has capped profit margins for fuel companies and food retailers until 30 June, but has not capped outright fuel prices. Austria will introduce a cap on power prices for households and small businesses starting in July. France and Italy are monitoring petrol pump prices for excess profits but have refrained from announcing price caps or fiscal easing measures so far. Any easing of fiscal policy could strengthen hawkish voices in the ECB’s governing council, but we still expect the ECB to remain unchanged.
In Sweden, unemployment statistics from the Public Employment Service for February were published this morning. The situation on the labour market continues to improve, and unemployment according to the service’s statistics is now at 6.6%. Tomorrow, the official AKU unemployment data will be published.
Equities: Equities headed south again on Wednesday. Oil price still governing the moves in bond and equity markets and with oil prices above 100 dollar per barrel this morning, futures indicated another red start in the ballpark of -1%. Diving into markets in more detail, US tech continued to outperform the market yesterday. It was not a classic risk-off session, as was the case for most of last week as well. Instead, many defensive sectors were hit the hardest and consumer staples one of the worst performers.
FI and FX: Risk sentiment retreated again over yesterday’s trading session following headlines from the Middle East. Markets were not convinced that the IEA will be able to stabilize oil prices with its 400-million-barrel release of strategic reserves. Brent crude is back just below the USD 100/bbl mark. EUR/USD continued to trade lower below 1.16, EUR/SEK bounced back just shy of 10.70 and EUR/NOK weakened to about 11.17. US Treasury yields were about unchanged, up about 1bp across the belly of the curve. European bond markets underwent a bearish repricing amid hawkish comments by ECB staff, with 2Y EUR swap yields climbing about 10bp.
