- The conflict in the Middle East has altered the dynamics of the oil market.
- The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the higher the risks of a Brent rally.
Don’t expect things to return to normal. Before the conflict in the Middle East, the oil market was in the hands of the bears. Demand was falling due to the shift towards alternative energy sources, whilst supply was rising. OPEC+ was gradually increasing production to avoid losing market share and investors were talking about a record surplus. Today, the IEA estimates the loss of supply at 12 million barrels per day, which is more than during the Arab oil embargo of 1973–1974 and the Iranian Revolution of 1978–1979 combined. However, it would be rather naive to think that the end of the war will cause prices to plummet.
Even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take months to restore production in the damaged energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf. At the same time, countries are seriously concerned about energy security and will work hard to boost oil demand. Interestingly, the current decline in demand is preventing Brent from soaring too high.
Vitol, a crude oil trader, estimates a demand loss of around 4 million barrels per day due to excessively high prices. If we add Saudi Arabia’s workarounds, the increase in US crude exports, and active purchases by China and India of Russian barrels stranded at sea, then the stabilisation of Brent near $100 starts to look logical. The math suggests that the actual deficit is closer to 5% than 10%.
The problem is that the crude on Russian tankers at sea is running out, the US’s ability to ramp up supply is limited by existing infrastructure, and a resumption of fire in the Middle East could lead to the Houthis blocking Saudi Arabia’s alternative routes. With this background, Citi’s forecast of Brent rising to $110 a barrel should the Strait of Hormuz be blocked for another month will seem far too modest.
The longer the US and Iran delay reaching a peace agreement, the more devastating the oil crisis risks being for the global economy. However, optimism has not yet faded. Investors are operating on the assumption that ‘it could be worse’. A fragile peace in the form of an indefinite ceasefire is better than war. The transit fee paid to Iran is seen as compensation for the bombing of its territory.
