First Impressions: NZ Business cCnfidence, September 2026

The recovery is continuing but it remains bumpy. Inflation gauges have not increased despite the recent rise in oil prices.

Key results, September 2026 

• Business confidence: 51.9 (Prev: 53.7)
• Expectations for own activity: 47.9 (Prev: 48.2)
• Activity vs same month one year ago: 10.8 (Prev: 16.4)
• Inflation expectations: 3.25% (Prev: 3.26%)

Pricing intentions: 48.4 (Prev: 51.0)There was a modest easing in September’s business confidence survey. However, gauges of past and expected business activity, as well as business confidence remain at firm levels, consistent with the recovery continuing in the latter part of the year.

While that’s welcome news, most of the responses were received prior to the recent spike in oil prices. Those responses that came through later in the month were softer, but in most cases, we’re still left with a relatively resilient picture of business conditions. Indeed, the ANZ noted that we haven’t seen the same sort of pessimism we saw earlier in the year when fuel price first spiked. That’s consistent with our recent theme of the economy shaking off the impacts of the Iran war.

There was one notable exception – hiring intentions did take a noticeable step down following the fuel spike, and this will be a key area to watch over the coming months.

Notably, gauges of inflation pressure didn’t rise despite the recent fuel price spike. Expectations for inflation were steady (3.25% this month vs 3.26% in August), while the number of firms planning on raising prices fell back. That’s notable given the lift in wage and cost expectations. However, even with today’s easing, the surveys measures of inflation pressure remain elevated.

Overall, we’re left with a picture of fairly resilient activity and contained (but not low) inflation pressures. That very modest response to the fuel spike will help to calm nerves at the RBNZ ahead of October’s policy review. We’ll we watching to see if sort of message is reflect in next week’s closely watch Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (out 6 October) and in the upcoming inflation reports (16 and 22 October).