Market movers ahead

  • The main news out of the US will be the minutes from the January FOMC meeting; discussions on inflation and fiscal stimulus will be particularly interesting.
  • In the euro area the focus turns to PMI and German ifo expectations – both for January. We believe the business surveys have peaked and will move slightly lower from here.
  • Other global data to watch will be UK labour market report, Japanese PMI and Chinese house prices.
  • In Scandi look out for Swedish inflation data and the oil investment survey and unemployment in Norway.

Global macro and market themes

  • There was more fuel for the inflation scare from US core inflation…
  • …but stock markets shrugged it off this time, suggesting the sell-off is over. We look for more upside in equities as fundamentals still look robust.
  • We see tentative signs of a peak in the global business cycle, but growth is expected to remain solid.
  • We expect the rise in bond yields to slow down, but see upside risk on a 12M horizon.

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