Key Points:
- Near-term rally now in jeopardy as the 100 day EMA draws nearer.
- Overarching bullishness could see the 51.55 handle tested moving ahead.
- OPEC still worth keeping an eye on.
Oil prices are reaching a critical zone of resistance which could spell trouble for the forecasted rally. Specifically, as has been discussed previously, the 100 day moving average is generating some significant resistance which could prevent the 51.55 mark from being reached over the coming session. As a result, it may be worth looking at some of the developing technical readings to establish a bias moving ahead.
Beginning with what could be an impediment to the previously forecasted rally, primarily, we expect the presence of the 100 day EMA to present a major obstacle for the pair. However, the movement of the stochastics into overbought territory will also be giving the bulls pause for thought. Additionally, a rather robust historical zone of resistance will also be playing its part in preventing further gains from being claimed.
Despite these factors, a number of other instruments are generally indicating that we should see the forecasted rally up to the 51.55 level take place. Firstly, the overarching double bottom structure would usually suggest that the strong uptrend should continue, especially given that we have broken above the neckline. Further, we have seen both a MACD signal line crossover and an inversion of the parabolic SAR reading which would also be indicative of upside potential.
Although the overall outlook remains fairly bullish, after overcoming the current impasse, gains should be limited to the 51.55 price as has been previously indicated. The presence of not only a historical zone of resistance but also the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement should provide more than enough resistance to halt oil’s advance. Moreover, the ensuing reversal might even send the commodity all the way back to the lower constraint of the wedge.
Ultimately, we may be more at the mercy of fundamental upsets than we would like to admit at present. In particular, OPEC has been oddly silent despite the recent geopolitical developments in the market which could mean the cartel is on the verge of announcing a deepening or extension of its production freeze. Regardless, monitor oil prices closely over the coming week as we could have some interesting moves on our hands if the technical forecast rings true.
