Trade Turmoil

A series of waivers of US steel and aluminum tariffs eased trade worries on one front but escalated them on another Thursday as stock markets were battered. The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged in a classic risk-off move. Japanese CPI is due up next. The Premium DAX30 short was closed at 11980 for 360 pt-gain.

The US trade position is increasingly clear. Levying tariffs against some of its closest trading partners was part of a negotiating strategy. They were a threat designed to bring them to the table, where the US gave them an ultimatum: take our side against China or face the consequences.

Leaks from EU tariff negotiations showed that support for the US against China at the WTO stood among the conditions. At the same time, the US hit China with fresh tariffs Thursday on imports of intellectual property.

So what had looked like a US-against-the-world trade spat may be the-world-against-China, led by the US. That puts the China in a tough spot but leaves them with several options: 1) play the long game by accepting the tariffs and wait for Trump to leave office, 7 more years if necessary. 2) Try to sway countries on the US side. 3) Try to hurt the US in swing states head of the US mid-terms.

At the moment, the third option is the most likely but markets will be watching China’s next move very closely. The S&P 500 closed on the lows and narrowly below the worst levels of March. Technically, the picture is deteriorating.It’s much the same in the yen crosses – many of which never recovered from the plunge in February anyway.

Going into the weekend, the market will be wary of negative headlines and risk aversion will probably continue. Yen traders will we watching for headlines from Japanese CPI at 2330 GMT. The consensus is for a 0.5% y/y rise ex-fresh food and energy.

Ashraf Laidi
Ashraf Laidihttp://ashraflaidi.com/
Ashraf Laidi is an independent strategist and trader, founder of Intermarket Strategy Ltd and author of "Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis". He is the former chief global strategist at City Index / FX Solutions, where he focused on foreign exchange and global macro developments pertaining to central bank policies, sovereign debt and intermarket dynamics. Ashraf had also served as Chief Strategist at CMC Markets, where he headed a global team of analysts and led seminars and trainings in four continents. His insights on currencies and commodities won him several #1 rankings with FXWeek and Reuters. Prior to CMC Markets, Laidi monitored the performance of a multi-FX portfolio at the United Nations, assessed sovereign and project investment risk with Hagler Bailly and the World Bank, and analyzed emerging market bonds at Reuters. Laidi also created the first 24-hour currency web site for traders and researchers alike on the eve of the creation of the euro. Laidi's analysis of currency markets stand out based on his distinct style in bridging the fundamental and technical aspects of the markets. Laidi regularly appears on CNBC TV (US, Europe, Arabia and Asia/Pacific), Bloomberg TV (US, Asia/Pacific, France and Spain), BNN, PBSs Nightly Business Report, and BBC. His insights also appear in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and Barrons. He has given numerous interviews and lectures in Arabic, French, and to audiences spanning from Canada, Central America and Asia/Pacific.

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