Muted Easter Trading With Bulk Of Europe Closed

Apr 02 18, 10:38 GMT

Notes/Observations

Soybeans sow seeds of discontent in US and China’s trade war
Japan Q1 Tankan Survey showed that non-manufacturing business mood soured for first time in two years (Non-Manufacturing Index: 23 v 24e)
Muted Easter trading with bulk of Europe closed (HK, Australia and New Zealand were also closed)

Asia:

China imposing new tariffs on 128 US products amounting to $3B including meat and fruit in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminum, effective Apr 1st (Note: A bigger dispute looms over Trump’s approval of possible higher duties on nearly $50 billion of Chinese goods)
Commerce Ministry reiterated trade talks with US needed to happen in order to prevent greater damage to relationship
China Mar Manufacturing PMI (Govt official) 51.5 v 50.7e reinforcing views that China got off to a surprisingly strong start to the year.
China Mar Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 51.0 v 51.7e (lowest reading since Nov)
Japan Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 53.1 v 53.2 prelim
Japan Q1 Tankan Survey: Large Manufacturing Index: 24 v 25e; Large Manufacturing Outlook: 20 v 22e. Large Non-Manufacturing Index: 23 v 24e (1st decline in six quarters)
US and South Korea start scaled down annual military drills after month-long delay, no response from North Korea
Japan Feb Jobless Rate beat expectations but still registered its 1st rise in 9 months (2.5% v 2.6%e)> Jan reading was 2.4%

Europe:

9 members of Tory party said to back amendments to the legislation needed for Britain to leave the EU – including a parliamentary vote on staying in a customs union
Germany Fin Min Scholz said to seek provision to cushion the burden on the federal budget with the aspect of sharply rising interest rates. If the average rate of interest on federal debt only rose by one percentage point, it would also have to raise more than ten billion euros in debt service.

Americas:

President Trump recent tweets stated that NO MORE DACA DEAL – Border Patrol Agents are not allowed to properly do their job at the Border because of ridiculous liberal (Democrat) laws like Catch & Release

Economic Data:

Fixed Income Issuance:

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Speakers

Trump Administration said to unveil the list of Chinese imports targeted for tariffs during the week of Apr 1st. Expected to target high technology products but could take more than two months before going into effect

Currencies

FX markets were very quiet as Europe continued with its extended Easter holiday but traders were wary over global trade tensions.
EUR/USD remained in the middle of its 2018 trading range just holding above the 1.23 area.
USD/JPY was little changed at 106.30

Fixed Income

Looking Ahead

(RO) Romania Mar International Reserves: No est v $38.7B prior
(RU) Russia Mar Sovereign Wealth Funds: Wellbeing Fund: No est v $66.4B prior
(BR) Brazil Feb CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 78.1% prior
07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
07:30 (IN) India Jan Eight Infrastructure (Key) Industries: No est v 6.7% prior
08:30 (CA) Canada Feb MLI Leading Indicator M/M: No est v 0.4% prior
09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.2 prior
09:00 (SG) Singapore Mar Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): 52.8e v 52.7 prior
09:30 (CA) Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.6 prior
09:45 (US) Mar Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 55.7e v 55.7 prelim
10:00 (US) Mar ISM Manufacturing: 60.0e v 60.8 prior; Prices Paid: 72.5e v 74.2 prior
10:00 (US) Feb Construction Spending M/M: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior
10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Total Remittances: $2.3Be v $2.2B prior
10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Bank Economist Survey
10:30 (MX) Mexico Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 51.6 prior
11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
13:00 (MX) Mexico Mar IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 52.6 prior; IMEF Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 53.4 prior
14:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Trade Balance: No est v $4.9B prior
16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report