At 08:00 GMT, German IFO – Current Assessment (Apr) is expected to come in at 106.0 from 125.9 previously. IFO – Expectations (Apr) is expected to be 99.5 from 104.4 prior. IFO – Business Climate (Apr) is expected at 102.7 v 114.7 previously. This index will rebase today from the year 2005 to a base year of 2015. This means last month’s Business Climate reading of 114.7 will change to 103.2. This is to include the service sector for the first time, which makes up nearly 60% of GDP. The data is still expected to show a weakening business climate in Germany. This data cannot be ignored, as it surveys 7,000 businesses and is a leading indicator of economic direction. EUR crosses may see a spike in volatility should the actual data differ from the expected consensus.
At 13:00 GMT, US Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb) is expected at 0.5% v 0.8% previously. This data is expected slip lower after a strong improvement last month. S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index (YoY) (Feb) is expected to come in at 6.3% against a prior 6.4%. This measure has been holding a steady improvement since the late 2014 low, with today’s data expected to be largely in line with expectations, if slightly weaker. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of this data.
At 14:00 GMT, US New Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) is expected to come in at 0.630M from 0.618M previously. New Home Sales Change (MoM) (Mar) is expected at 1.9% v -0.6% previously. On the back of strong Existing Home Sales data yesterday, Sales are expected to improve again after falling for three months since the November high. Further improvement in these figures shows a pickup in confidence in the US housing market. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of this data and could lead to further USD strength.
