Market movers today
In the US, the NFIB small business opt imism for March is due out . Business opt imism soared after the elect ion of Donald Trump to President . However, given the increased uncertainty about how many of his policies Trump will actually be able to carry through with in pract ice, business opt imism may start to fade – for more informat ion see Strategy: Trumponomics postponed further, 24 March. Tonight , the Fed’s Kashkari (voter, dovish) is due to speak.
Today, the euro area indust rial product ion figures for February are due out . January’s product ion increased by 0.9% m/m and we est imate a 1.0% monthly increase in February after the very st rong increase in German indust rial product ion.
The German ZEW expectat ions are also due for release today. Like the Sent ix, the ZEW expectat ions should remain on an upward t rend given the st rength of economic data and st rong survey indicators. We believe ZEW expectat ions will rise to 13.7, thus showing lit t le react ion to Art icle 50 being t riggered by the UK and the imminent French elect ion.
In the UK, the most important data release is the CPI inflat ion data for March due out today. We est imate total CPI rose 0.4% m/m in March, implying an unchanged inflat ion rate at 2.3% (CPI core 0.5% m/m and 1.9% y/y).
Selected market news
Fed chief Yellen late evening sent the message that Feds monetary policy task has changed, it is now more a mat ter of get t ing to a neut ral stance. It is no longer necessary to push down the accelerator, but st ill giving some gas. Yellen said she expect s " t he economy t o grow at moderate speed and t hat gradual rat e hikes will t ake us where want t o be".
White House spokesman Sean Spicer’s comment s t hat the US might act if the Syrian Government cont inues to use oil barrel bombs against civilians, possibly signalling an increased risk for US intervent ion.
On the Korean peninsula, North Korea crit icised US naval movements calling it a step closer to invasion. The left -oriented South Korean opposit ion leader Moon-Jae, who is leading polls ahead of president ial elect ion on May 9th, also said the US cannot take military act ion without South Korea agreeing.
