Key Highlights
- Gold price failed to hold a major support near $1,285 and declined against the US Dollar.
- There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $1,296 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.
- The US Housing Starts in May 2018 increased 5%, more than the forecast of +1.4%.
- Today, the US Existing Home Sales figure for May 2018 will be released, which is forecasted to grow by 1.5% (MoM).
Gold Price Technical Analysis
After trading above the $1,300 level, gold price failed to hold gains against the US Dollar. The price started a downside move and broke a few major supports including $1,295.
A high was formed at $1,309 before the price started a bearish wave. It declined below $1,300 and closed below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). During the decline, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $1,296 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.
More importantly, the price broke two key supports at $1,290 and $1,285, opening the doors for more losses. The price traded close to the $1,270 level and is currently consolidating losses.
On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1,309 high to $1,270 low. However, the most important hurdle is near $1,285, which was a support earlier and now coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1,309 high to $1,270 low.
Therefore, if the price corrects higher, it is likely to face sellers near $1,285. On the downside, supports are seen near $1,270 and $1,266.
Recently, the US saw the release of the Housing Starts report for May 2018 by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce. The market was looking for a rise of 1.4% compared with the previous decline of 3.7%.
However, the result was positive as there was a rise of 5% in the Housing Starts. The last reading was also revised down to -3.1%. The report added:
Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 936,000; this is 3.9 percent (±10.6 percent)* above the revised April figure of 901,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000.
Overall, the US Dollar may continue to gain momentum. EUR/USD recently dipped and traded towards 1.1550, and GBP/USD also fell sharply below the 1.3200 support.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- US Current Account Q1 2018 – Forecast $-129.0B, versus $-128.2B previous.
- US Existing Home Sales for May 2018 (MoM) – Forecast +1.5%, versus -2.5% previous.
