USDCHF lost 4.8% after reaching its highest since May 2017 of 1.0067 around mid-July. It is currently trading not far above a five-and-a-half-month low of 0.9541 tracked on Friday.
The Tenkan- and Kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned in support of a bearish short-term bias for the pair.
Should USDCHF extend lower, support may come around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 0.9187 to 1.0067 at 0.9523; last week’s five-and-a-half-month nadir of 0.9541 is also part of the area around this point. Lower still, the 76.4% Fibonacci mark at 0.9395 would increasingly come into scope.
On the upside, resistance could occur around the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.9627; the Tenkan-sen lies not far above at 0.9645. Further above, the focus would turn to the 38.2% Fibonacci point at 0.9730.
The medium-term picture is looking bearish, with price action taking place below the 50- and 100-day (simple) moving average lines, as well as below the Ichimoku cloud. Overall, trading activity is confirming the negative medium-term signal given by the bearish cross recorded in early September when the 50-day MA moved below the 100-day one.
To sum up, both the short- and medium-term outlooks are looking predominantly negative at the moment.
