Sat, Dec 04, 2021 @ 17:24 GMT
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Market Morning Briefing

STOCKS

Dow (20619.77, +0.04%) closed slightly higher but is seeing a pause just now. We can expect a pause near 20800 from where a short dip is possible.

Dax (11757.24, -0.31%) came down yesterday. But immediate support is visible near 11680 which is likely to produce a bounce in the near term. View remains bullish towards 11900.

Nikkei (19242.11, -0.54%) is trading lower and could possibly re-test levels near 19080. Overall the broad 19000-19620 region holds for the near term.

Shanghai (3225.15, -0.14%) has bounced back as expected and could move up towards 3250 in the next couple of sessions. Near term looks bullish.

The support near 8700 seems to have held well on the Nifty (8778, +0.61%) yesterday, producing a bounce back to levels near 8800. An immediate break above 8800 today could turn bullish for the coming week.

COMMODITIES

Gold (1238.8) is about to test its resistance of 1248 for third time after 8th and 9th of Feb 2017 due to fresh weakness in Dollar (100.45). A close above 1248 could open up 1276. Immediate support poised at 1225 and 1219 respectively.

We will remain bullish on Silver (18.05) as long it is trading above 18.00.But weakness in copper may trigger a sharper decline in Silver till 17.50.

Copper (2.72) is trading quietly in the range of 2.70-85 due to lack of fresh buying momentum. A close below 2.70 may weaken copper till 2.60.

Nothing has been changed for Brent (55.78) and WTI (53.36) in the last session. Both are hovering around their pivots of their respective ranges of 53-58 and 50-55 with no directional bias.

FOREX

Dollar has confirmed a near term corrective phase which may continue for the next 1-3 sessions. All the currencies may consolidate their recent gains/losses in this period.

Dollar Index (100.51) failed to hold above the support of 100.85, confirming the corrective state. The decline has already corrected 50% of the February rise from 99.23 to 101.76 and may extend lower to 100.20-00 before demand emerges again.

In an exact mirroring of Dollar, Euro (1.0672) has retraced 50% of the entire February decline from 1.0829 to 1.0519 but it may face hurdle at 1.0710 before the rise can extend higher towards 1.08.

Dollar-Yen (113.35) has broken below the immediate support of 113.65 and may trade sideways in the range of 112.85-114.85 for the next few sessions.

Pound (1.2502) remains unchanged in the narrow range of 1.2400-1.2600 but the early part of the next week may see a range expansion to 1.2350-1.2700.

Aussie (0.7703) has kept the trend up so far but as it stalls near the major resistance zone of 0.7750-0.7800, a failure to rise above 0.7800 soon may push it to 0.7650-30 or even lower levels.

For the first time this week, Dollar Rupee (67.07) has shown some activity as it closed at the edge of the near term range of 66.80-67.07. However, it needs to sustain above 67.07 today to open up higher targets of 67.40-50.

INTEREST RATES

The US yields have come off slightly after facing rejection from resistance levels. . The 5YR (1.95%), 10Yr (2.46%) and the 30Yr (3.06%) are all trading lower from 1.98%, 2.49% and 3.08% respectively. Near term looks bearish.

The US 10-5YR (0.51%) has bounced slightly instead of moving lower towards 0.48%. If the bounce continues, we may see a rise towards 0.525 in the near term.

The German-US 2YR (-2.02%) has risen from levels near -2.05% and may move up towards -2% in the near term indicating a rise in Euro towards 1.0700-1.0710.

Kshitij Consultancy Servicehttp://www.kshitij.com
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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