AUDJPY has reversed back down again after reaching resistance at the 83.00 handle, which coincides with the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). Momentum indicators are pointing to a neutral to bearish bias in the short-term. The MACD oscillator has slipped below the trigger line, indicating further losses and the RSI indicator is pointing down near the 50 region.
Further losses should bring into focus the 20-day SMA at 81.30 at the time of writing, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 90.30 to 78.55. A bit lower, the 40-day SMA could act as support around 80.80 as well. A drop below the SMAs would reinforce the recent bearish sentiment in the short-term and open the way towards the next key level of 80.50. More downside pressure could challenge again the two-year nadir of 78.55.
On the other side, immediate resistance to gains may come around 83.00, which overlaps with the 38.2% Fibonacci. Steeper increases would bring the pair around 83.90, taken from the high on July 19 within scope.
To sum up, in the long-term view, AUDJPY has been trading within a downward sloping channel since March and there are signs for further weakening in the near term too.
