Attempts of Turkey’s financial authorities to help weakening lira, showed limited positive reaction for the currency so far.
Last week’s intervention slowed lira’s fall, but subsequent weakness signals that the action would be likely short-lived.
Sharp USDTRY’s fall after intervention (the pair was down 3.4% in immediate reaction) was contained by rising 20SMA and following recovery, which left series of higher lows and tracked by ascending 20SMA, diminish hopes of stronger lira’s recovery.
Rising uncertainty over political turmoil after elections in Turkey adds to lira’s negative sentiment, prompting investors into foreign currencies that further pressures lira.
Recovery from post-intervention low at 5.9378 spiked to Fibo 61.8% retracement of 6.2445/5.9378 and looks for bullish signal on repeated close above Fibo 38.2% at 6.0550.
Weaker momentum on daily chart warns that the price may hold in extended consolidation but bias is expected to remain with bulls while 20SMA keeps the downside protected.
Bulls look for weekly close above cracked Fibo barrier at 5.1198 (50% retracement of 7.1074/5.1323 correction) to generate fresh signal for continuation.
Regain of last week’s peak at 6.2445 would expose next key barrier at 6.3529 (Fibo 61.8% of 7.1074/5.1323).
Res: 6.0912, 6.1274, 6.2018, 6.2445
Sup: 6.0211, 6.0000, 5.9758, 5.9378