USDTRY: Negative Fundamentals Keep Turkish Lira on Course for Further Fall
The Turkish lira maintains overall weak tone and holding within multi-week consolidation, not far from new all-time low, posted in November last year.
Rising inflation and central bank’s inability to adopt conventional measures to tackle the problem, as governors of Turkey’s central bank who raised interest rates in order to...
USD/TRY: Turkish Lira Bounces from One-Month Low But Overall Picture Remains Negative
Turkish lira rebounded from new one-month (8.4340) posted on Monday, as traders collected profits after the last week’s advance showed signs of stall on approach to Mar 30 /22 lower tops (8.4443 / 8.5015).
Despite fresh strength, overall lira’s picture remains negative due to latest political tensions with the USA...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
After a week with few EMU and US data, EMU PMI’s provided a reality check on how the economy weathers the new corona wave, annex new containment measures. The PMI’s provided comfort. The EMU composite PMI even improved further from 53.2 to 53.7. Growth in the manufacturing sector (63.3)...
USD/TRY Outlook: Turkish Lira Falls Further On News From CBRT/Stronger Dollar
USDTRY rose to one-week high on Tuesday and is on track to fully retrace a partial recovery from last week’s 8.5015 high.
Lira remains under increased pressure since the most recent shock after President Erdogan replaced the governor of the central bank, with the latest news of removing a CBRT...
TRYing Times & EM FX Volatility
Turkish Lira fireworks are back with a bang in the EM scene. TRY plunged at the start of Monday trading after Erdogan fired central bank governor Naci Agbal following a rate hike. EM currencies were pressured across the board, prompting USD higher and metals lower in early Asi trade....
Elliott Wave Analysis: USD/TRY Can be Headed Much Higher after Erdogan’s Actions
We have a few topics that will drive the markets this week. First is coming from Turkey after Erdogan has fired the central bank governor after they increased rates on Thursday. TRY lost 15% against the USD. Second important topic is all about vaccine and covid cases which are...
USDTRY Faces Strong Losses after 4-Month High
USDTRY shifted aggressively to the downside after spiking towards a fresh four-month high of 8.4647 earlier today. The price is trying to recoup the positive gap which was posted during the previous sessions, with the technical indicators showing a mixed behavior. The RSI is sloping down from the overbought territory, whereas the MACD is gaining...
Currency Pair of the Week: USD/TRY
For all that has been said and done over the last few weeks, the US Dollar index (DXY) has been relatively rangebound since the beginning of March. Despite the extremely dovish FOMC meeting, rising interest rates, and increasing inflation expectations, the DXY has remained between 91.00 and 92.00 since...
The Uncomfortable Ergonomics Of Erdonomics
Turkish lire takes a tumble
The Turkish lire suffered a massive fall in the twilight zone of early Monday morning after President Erdogan removed central bank head Naci Agbal from his post on Saturday. The lire (TRL) fell approximately 17.0% to 8.4900 this morning before USD/TRL stabilised around 8.1000, a...
Could US Treasuries Draw Some Support From A More Fragile Risk Environment?
Markets
Markets were still looking for a post-Fed equilibrium last Friday. US yields stayed near recent peak levels, but changes were limited (5& 10y + 1.5 bps, 30y -0.5bps). German Bunds outperformed with yields easing up to 2.7 bps/3 bps as ECB members repeated their commitment to keep financial conditions...
Turkish Lira Plunge Felt In Japan
Turkey has returned to financial market headlines following President Erdogan’s decision to fire the country’s hawkish central bank head on Saturday. The Turkish Lira tumbled 14% against the dollar as trading kicked off in Asia to become one of the worst performing emerging market currencies against the greenback this...
European Open: Yen Catches A Bid On Turkish Lira’s Downfall
The 17% rally on USD/TRY at market open didn't go unnoticed as the yen was the strongest major of the session, and AUD came initially under pressure.
Asian Indices:
Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 44.3 points (0.66%) to close at 6,752.50
Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 31.67...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Bond volatility came back to haunt markets. After a rather calm week for bonds, supported by decent long-tenor auctions in the US and to a lesser extent yesterday’s ECB policy meeting, both the German Bund and USTs suffered a blow today. The latter underperformed already yesterday after strong weekly...
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Two Scenarios Likely
Since November, the EUR/TRY exchange rate has been trading within a falling wedge pattern.
From a theoretical perspective, it is likely that the currency pair could continue to depreciate within the predetermined pattern until the beginning of April. Then, the pair could breach it north and target the 10.20 level.
In...
TRY/JPY 4H Chart: Upside Potential Could Prevail
Since the end of November, the TRY/JPY exchange rate has been trading upwards within an ascending channel.
From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that the currency pair could continue to appreciate within the predetermined channel. In this case the pair could reach the Fibo 38.20% at 15.88...
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Bulls Could Prevail In Market
Since the middle of November, the USD/TRY currency pair has been trading downwards within a falling wedge pattern.
From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that the exchange rate could breach the predetermined pattern north within the following trading sessions. Note that the rate could face the resistance...
USD/TRY: Lira Cracks Key Obstacles and Rises to 28-Week High; CBRT Meeting in Focus
The USDTRY fell to the lowest in 6 ½ months on Tuesday, following break and close below psychological 7.00 support on Monday.
The Turkish lira remains very attractive to investors and further acceleration could be expected.
The downtrend from new record high (8.5816) cracked strong supports at 7.00/6.88 zone (psychological /...
USD/TRY Outlook: Bears Are Consolidating Above Psychological 7.00 Support
The USDTRY holds in sideways mode above psychological 7.00 support for the third day, following 3.5% drop last week.
Larger bears face headwinds as corporate buyers are seen at 7.00 zone, also reinforced by the top of rising thick daily cloud (6.9100).
Fresh dollar’s weakness and lira being one of the...
USD/TRY: Bears to Extend Further after Break of Key Supports
The USDTRY returned to red on Wednesday after bears took a breather on Tuesday, when price bounced from new six-month low (7.0887).
The pair was down nearly 4% since it broke pivotal 200DMA last week, with additional negative signals being generated on break of former low (7.2370) and 50% retracement...
Turkish Lira Rises to Five-Month High vs Dollar on Break of Key Barriers and Upbeat Data
The Turkish lira is among top gainers on Monday, advancing 1.6% against the US dollar since opening in Asia and on track for further advance.
Last week’s break of pivotal 200DMA generated positive signal, with fresh acceleration through next key obstacles at 7.2370 (lira’s 2021 high) and 7.2100 (50% retracement...
USD/TRY Outlook: Lira Accelerates Higher after Taking Out 200DMA Barrier
The Turkish lira regained traction and strengthens further against the US dollar, following break of pivotal 200SMA (7.3643) which held the action in past three weeks.
Lira is also on track for the second straight bullish weekly close and third consecutive bullish month that adds to positive outlook.
Holding lira became...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
The ECB left key policy parameters unchanged. The deposit rate remains at a negative -0.5%. APP runs at a €20bn pace/month. Net bond buying under PEPP will continue until March 2022 while maturing securities will be rolled-over at least until end 2023. The ECB has repeatedly said they could...
USD/TRY Outlook: Lira May Rise Through Key Barriers If CBRT Stays On Hold Today
The USDTRY stands at the back foot for the third straight day but remains within three-week range between rising 200DMA (7.3534) and recovery top at 7.5384.
Lira holding in a larger uptrend vs dollar, which extends into third straight month, after hitting its record low at 8.5816.
Fresh lira’s strength has...
TRY/JPY 4H Chart: Two Scenarios Likely
Since the end of November, the TRY/JPY exchange rate has been trading upwards within a rising wedge pattern.
From a theoretical perspective, it is likely that the currency pair could breach the predetermined pattern south within the following trading sessions. In this case the pair could target the psychological level...
USD/TRY: Rebound Expected
Pivot (invalidation): 7.4050
Our preference Long positions above 7.4050 with targets at 7.4680 & 7.5000 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.4050 look for further downside with 7.3750 & 7.3500 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a rebound.
USD/TRY: Bullish Bias Above 7.6300
Pivot (invalidation): 7.6300
Our preference Long positions above 7.6300 with targets at 7.6670 & 7.6880 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.6300 look for further downside with 7.6120 & 7.5880 as targets.
Comment A support base at 7.6300 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
USD/TRY Rebound Expected
Pivot (invalidation): 7.6210
Our preference Long positions above 7.6210 with targets at 7.6670 & 7.6880 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.6210 look for further downside with 7.6060 & 7.5880 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.
USD/TRY: Continuation Of The Rebound
Pivot (invalidation): 7.6350
Our preference Long positions above 7.6350 with targets at 7.7060 & 7.7400 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.6350 look for further downside with 7.6060 & 7.5700 as targets.
Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.
USD/TRY: Towards 7.6580
Pivot (invalidation): 7.7410
Our preference Short positions below 7.7410 with targets at 7.6890 & 7.6580 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.7410 look for further upside with 7.7720 & 7.8000 as targets.
Comment A break below 7.6890 would trigger a drop towards 7.6580.
USD/TRY: Watch 7.7520
Pivot (invalidation): 7.8250
Our preference Short positions below 7.8250 with targets at 7.7800 & 7.7520 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.8250 look for further upside with 7.8570 & 7.9000 as targets.
Comment A break below 7.7800 would trigger a drop towards 7.7520