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EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Two Scenarios Likely

Since November, the EUR/TRY exchange rate has been trading within a falling wedge pattern. From a theoretical perspective, it is likely that the currency pair could continue to depreciate within the predetermined pattern until the beginning of April. Then, the pair could breach it north and target the 10.20 level. In...

TRY/JPY 4H Chart: Upside Potential Could Prevail

Since the end of November, the TRY/JPY exchange rate has been trading upwards within an ascending channel. From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that the currency pair could continue to appreciate within the predetermined channel. In this case the pair could reach the Fibo 38.20% at 15.88...

USD/TRY 4H Chart: Bulls Could Prevail In Market

Since the middle of November, the USD/TRY currency pair has been trading downwards within a falling wedge pattern. From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that the exchange rate could breach the predetermined pattern north within the following trading sessions. Note that the rate could face the resistance...

USD/TRY: Lira Cracks Key Obstacles and Rises to 28-Week High; CBRT Meeting in Focus

The USDTRY fell to the lowest in 6 ½ months on Tuesday, following break and close below psychological 7.00 support on Monday. The Turkish lira remains very attractive to investors and further acceleration could be expected. The downtrend from new record high (8.5816) cracked strong supports at 7.00/6.88 zone (psychological /...

USD/TRY Outlook: Bears Are Consolidating Above Psychological 7.00 Support

The USDTRY holds in sideways mode above psychological 7.00 support for the third day, following 3.5% drop last week. Larger bears face headwinds as corporate buyers are seen at 7.00 zone, also reinforced by the top of rising thick daily cloud (6.9100). Fresh dollar’s weakness and lira being one of the...

USD/TRY: Bears to Extend Further after Break of Key Supports

The USDTRY returned to red on Wednesday after bears took a breather on Tuesday, when price bounced from new six-month low (7.0887). The pair was down nearly 4% since it broke pivotal 200DMA last week, with additional negative signals being generated on break of former low (7.2370) and 50% retracement...

Turkish Lira Rises to Five-Month High vs Dollar on Break of Key Barriers and Upbeat Data

The Turkish lira is among top gainers on Monday, advancing 1.6% against the US dollar since opening in Asia and on track for further advance. Last week’s break of pivotal 200DMA generated positive signal, with fresh acceleration through next key obstacles at 7.2370 (lira’s 2021 high) and 7.2100 (50% retracement...

USD/TRY Outlook: Lira Accelerates Higher after Taking Out 200DMA Barrier

The Turkish lira regained traction and strengthens further against the US dollar, following break of pivotal 200SMA (7.3643) which held the action in past three weeks. Lira is also on track for the second straight bullish weekly close and third consecutive bullish month that adds to positive outlook. Holding lira became...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The ECB left key policy parameters unchanged. The deposit rate remains at a negative -0.5%. APP runs at a €20bn pace/month. Net bond buying under PEPP will continue until March 2022 while maturing securities will be rolled-over at least until end 2023. The ECB has repeatedly said they could...

USD/TRY Outlook: Lira May Rise Through Key Barriers If CBRT Stays On Hold Today

The USDTRY stands at the back foot for the third straight day but remains within three-week range between rising 200DMA (7.3534) and recovery top at 7.5384. Lira holding in a larger uptrend vs dollar, which extends into third straight month, after hitting its record low at 8.5816. Fresh lira’s strength has...

TRY/JPY 4H Chart: Two Scenarios Likely

Since the end of November, the TRY/JPY exchange rate has been trading upwards within a rising wedge pattern. From a theoretical perspective, it is likely that the currency pair could breach the predetermined pattern south within the following trading sessions. In this case the pair could target the psychological level...

USD/TRY: Rebound Expected

Pivot (invalidation): 7.4050 Our preference Long positions above 7.4050 with targets at 7.4680 & 7.5000 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 7.4050 look for further downside with 7.3750 & 7.3500 as targets. Comment The RSI calls for a rebound.

USD/TRY: Bullish Bias Above 7.6300

Pivot (invalidation): 7.6300 Our preference Long positions above 7.6300 with targets at 7.6670 & 7.6880 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 7.6300 look for further downside with 7.6120 & 7.5880 as targets. Comment A support base at 7.6300 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

USD/TRY Rebound Expected

Pivot (invalidation): 7.6210 Our preference Long positions above 7.6210 with targets at 7.6670 & 7.6880 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 7.6210 look for further downside with 7.6060 & 7.5880 as targets. Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

USD/TRY: Continuation Of The Rebound

Pivot (invalidation): 7.6350 Our preference Long positions above 7.6350 with targets at 7.7060 & 7.7400 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 7.6350 look for further downside with 7.6060 & 7.5700 as targets. Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.

USD/TRY: Towards 7.6580

Pivot (invalidation): 7.7410 Our preference Short positions below 7.7410 with targets at 7.6890 & 7.6580 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.7410 look for further upside with 7.7720 & 7.8000 as targets. Comment A break below 7.6890 would trigger a drop towards 7.6580.

USD/TRY: Watch 7.7520

Pivot (invalidation): 7.8250 Our preference Short positions below 7.8250 with targets at 7.7800 & 7.7520 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.8250 look for further upside with 7.8570 & 7.9000 as targets. Comment A break below 7.7800 would trigger a drop towards 7.7520

USD/TRY: The Downside Prevails

Pivot (invalidation): 7.8640 Our preference Short positions below 7.8640 with targets at 7.8100 & 7.7830 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.8640 look for further upside with 7.9000 & 7.9330 as targets. Comment A break below 7.8100 would trigger a drop towards 7.7830.  

USD/TRY: Key Resistance At 7.9000

Pivot (invalidation): 7.9000 Our preference Short positions below 7.9000 with targets at 7.8170 & 7.7830 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.9000 look for further upside with 7.9330 & 7.9700 as targets. Comment As Long as the resistance at 7.9000 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 7.8170 remains high.

USD/TRY: Key Resistance At 7.8750

Pivot (invalidation): 7.8750 Our preference Short positions below 7.8750 with targets at 7.8320 & 7.8100 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.8750 look for further upside with 7.9000 & 7.9230 as targets. Comment The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 7.8750.

USD/TRY: Further Upside

Pivot (invalidation): 7.8500 Our preference Long positions above 7.8500 with targets at 7.9240 & 7.9640 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 7.8500 look for further downside with 7.8170 & 7.7810 as targets. Comment The RSI calls for a bounce.

USD/TRY: Range

Pivot (invalidation): 7.8470 Our preference Short positions below 7.8470 with targets at 7.7810 & 7.7530 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.8470 look for further upside with 7.8720 & 7.9100 as targets. Comment As Long as the resistance at 7.8470 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 7.7810 remains high.

USD/TRY: Key Resistance At 7.8470

Pivot (invalidation): 7.8470 Our preference Short positions below 7.8470 with targets at 7.7810 & 7.7530 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.8470 look for further upside with 7.8720 & 7.9100 as targets. Comment As Long as the resistance at 7.8470 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 7.7810 remains high.

USD/TRY: Watch 7.7470

Pivot (invalidation): 7.8470 Our preference Short positions below 7.8470 with targets at 7.7780 & 7.7470 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.8470 look for further upside with 7.8720 & 7.9100 as targets. Comment A break below 7.7780 would trigger a drop towards 7.7470.  

USD/TRY: Expect 7.7470

Pivot (invalidation): 7.8420 Our preference Short positions below 7.8420 with targets at 7.7780 & 7.7470 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.8420 look for further upside with 7.8800 & 7.9150 as targets. Comment The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 7.8420.

USD/TRY: Key Resistance At 7.8420

Pivot (invalidation): 7.8420 Our preference Short positions below 7.8420 with targets at 7.7470 & 7.7100 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 7.8420 look for further upside with 7.8800 & 7.9150 as targets. Comment As Long as the resistance at 7.8420 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 7.7470 remains high.

USD/TRY: Bullish Bias Above 7.7960

Pivot (invalidation): 7.7960 Our preference Long positions above 7.7960 with targets at 7.8800 & 7.9150 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 7.7960 look for further downside with 7.7660 & 7.7390 as targets. Comment A support base at 7.7960 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

USD/TRY: The Bias Remains Bullish

Pivot (invalidation): 7.7750 Our preference Long positions above 7.7750 with targets at 7.8730 & 7.9150 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 7.7750 look for further downside with 7.7390 & 7.7130 as targets. Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

USD/TRY: Bullish Bias Above 7.7750

Pivot (invalidation): 7.7750 Our preference Long positions above 7.7750 with targets at 7.8600 & 7.8950 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 7.7750 look for further downside with 7.7390 & 7.7130 as targets. Comment The RSI calls for a bounce.

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets At the start of the new week, global trading showed no clear, unequivocal trend across markets. Asian equities finished the month with modest losses despite the a solid China PMI confidence, both for the manufacturing and the services sector. This investor caution also spilled over into European trading. At...