USD/TRY Towards 7.8270
Pivot (invalidation): 7.8790
Our preference Short positions below 7.8790 with targets at 7.8470 & 7.8270 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.8790 look for further upside with 7.9050 & 7.9240 as targets.
Comment A break below 7.8470 would trigger a drop towards 7.8270.
USD/TRY Watch 7.8470
Pivot (invalidation): 7.9000
Our preference Short positions below 7.9000 with targets at 7.8640 & 7.8470 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.9000 look for further upside with 7.9240 & 7.9410 as targets.
Comment Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Week Ahead: Brexit Negotiations Off But Talks On?
Surprisingly, not a lot has changed over the last week in terms of headline events! Brexit “talks” seem to be happening this week, though Boris Johnson made sobering comments that the UK should get ready for a no-deal Brexit. However, that may be the least of the UK’s and...
USD/TRY Bullish Bias Above 7.9190
Pivot (invalidation): 7.9190
Our preference Long positions above 7.9190 with targets at 7.9500 & 7.9620 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.9190 look for further downside with 7.9070 & 7.8940 as targets.
Comment A support base at 7.9190 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
USD/TRY Rebound Expected
Pivot (invalidation): 7.8940
Our preference Long positions above 7.8940 with targets at 7.9220 & 7.9390 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.8940 look for further downside with 7.8810 & 7.8680 as targets.
Comment The RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.
USD/TRY The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 7.9050
Our preference Long positions above 7.9050 with targets at 7.9350 & 7.9550 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.9050 look for further downside with 7.8880 & 7.8680 as targets.
Comment Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
USD/TRY Key Resistance At 7.8960
Pivot (invalidation): 7.8960
Our preference Short positions below 7.8960 with targets at 7.8480 & 7.8320 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.8960 look for further upside with 7.9120 & 7.9350 as targets.
Comment As Long as the resistance at 7.8960 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 7.8480 remains high.
USD/TRY Rebound Expected
Pivot (invalidation): 7.8340
Our preference Long positions above 7.8340 with targets at 7.8990 & 7.9350 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.8340 look for further downside with 7.8020 & 7.7760 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a rebound.
USD/TRY The upside prevails.
Pivot (invalidation): 7.9120
Our preference Long positions above 7.9120 with targets at 7.9500 & 7.9810 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.9120 look for further downside with 7.8900 & 7.8550 as targets.
Comment The break above 7.9120 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 7.9500.
USD/TRY Watch 7.9160
Pivot (invalidation): 7.8600
Our preference Long positions above 7.8600 with targets at 7.9000 & 7.9160 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.8600 look for further downside with 7.8410 & 7.8220 as targets.
Comment Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
USD/TRY The upside prevails.
Pivot (invalidation): 7.7630
Our preference Long positions above 7.7630 with targets at 7.8250 & 7.8550 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.7630 look for further downside with 7.7400 & 7.7190 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.
USD/TRY Bullish Bias Above 7.7460
Pivot (invalidation): 7.7460
Our preference Long positions above 7.7460 with targets at 7.7690 & 7.7860 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.7460 look for further downside with 7.7190 & 7.6900 as targets.
Comment A support base at 7.7460 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Last week’s diverging trend in inflation expectations (US vs EMU) continues today. 5y5y forward inflation swaps added 10 bps in the US since Monday September 28 while they stabilized in the euro zone. The rising inflation expectations cause US Treasuries’ underperformance vs German Bunds. The US yield curve bear...
USD/TRY Bullish Bias Above 7.7190
Pivot (invalidation): 7.7190
Our preference Long positions above 7.7190 with targets at 7.7860 & 7.8250 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.7190 look for further downside with 7.6900 & 7.6650 as targets.
Comment A support base at 7.7190 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Ascending Channel In Sight
The EUR/TRY currency pair has been trading upwards within an ascending channel since the beginning of August.
From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that the exchange rate could continue to extend gains within the predetermined channel in the medium term. In this case the rate could face...
TRY/JPY 4H Chart: Two Scenarios Likely
The TRY/JPY exchange rate continued to decline within the falling wedge pattern.
From a theoretical perspective, it is likely that the currency pair could breach the given pattern north within the following trading sessions. In this case the pair could try to exceed the monthly R1 at the 14.50 mark.
In...
USD/TRY Towards 7.6510
Pivot (invalidation): 7.7450
Our preference Short positions below 7.7450 with targets at 7.6870 & 7.6510 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.7450 look for further upside with 7.7970 & 7.8570 as targets.
Comment A break below 7.6870 would trigger a drop towards 7.6510
TRY/JPY 4H Chart: Two Scenarios Likely
The TRY/JPY exchange rate continued to decline within the falling wedge pattern.
From a theoretical perspective, it is likely that the currency pair could breach the given pattern north within the following trading sessions. In this case the pair could try to exceed the monthly R1 at the 14.50 mark.
In...
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Ascending Channel In Sight
The EUR/TRY currency pair has been trading upwards within an ascending channel since the beginning of August.
From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that the exchange rate could continue to extend gains within the predetermined channel in the medium term. In this case the rate could face...
USD/TRY Towards 7.6510
Pivot (invalidation): 7.7450
Our preference Short positions below 7.7450 with targets at 7.6870 & 7.6510 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.7450 look for further upside with 7.7970 & 7.8570 as targets.
Comment A break below 7.6870 would trigger a drop towards 7.6510.
USDTRY Holds Near Record High; Indicators are Overbought
USDTRY surged to a fresh record high on Monday once again, hitting the 7.8605 barrier. The price has been in an ascending movement since December 2018; however, the technical indicators are suggesting an overbought market. The RSI is touching the 70 level, while the MACD is extending its structure...
USD/TRY Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 7.8570
Our preference Short positions below 7.8570 with targets at 7.7920 & 7.7550 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.8570 look for further upside with 7.9000 & 7.9380 as targets.
Comment A break below 7.7920 would trigger a drop towards 7.7550.
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Investors’ mood turned more balanced. Headlines stories didn’t provided enough positive news to continue yesterday’s rally. The debate on US fiscal stimulus continues as the Democratic Party prepared a new proposal, but it remains highly uncertain whether a deal is possible as the US election fever is rising. European...
USD/TRY: Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 7.7550
Our preference Long positions above 7.7550 with targets at 7.8650 & 7.9000 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.7550 look for further downside with 7.7120 & 7.6510 as targets.
Comment Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
USD/TRY Outlook: Lira Falls to New All-Time Low on Intensifying Conflict in Caucasus
The USDTRY surged to new all-time high at 7.8592 on Monday, as conflict in Caucasus, on Turkey’s border, revived negative sentiment and pushed lira further down.
The unexpected action from CBRT last week, when the central bank increased interest rate by 2% to 10.25%, provided short relief to lira, as...
USD/TRY: Caution
Pivot (invalidation): 7.6400
Our preference Long positions above 7.6400 with targets at 7.7150 & 7.7550 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 7.6400 look for further downside with 7.6100 & 7.5850 as targets.
Comment Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Hesitancy, reluctance and caution is the most adequate description of global mood at the start of the last trading session of the week. Headlines on corona are again the dominant factor for sentiment. Rising cases in Europe (and elsewhere) and subsequent actions to limit social activity are raising uncertainty...
USD/TRY Outlook: Turkish Lira Rises After Surprise CBRT Rate Hike But Advance Is Likely To Be Limited
The Turkish lira rose strongly against the dollar, gaining 20 big figures in two days after Turkish central bank unexpectedly hiked interest rates by 2% to 10.25% on Thursday.
The CBRT surprised by tightening policy for the first time in two years in attempts to push lira from its record...
USD/TRY: Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 7.6470
Our preference Short positions below 7.6470 with targets at 7.6040 & 7.5780 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 7.6470 look for further upside with 7.6710 & 7.6980 as targets.
Comment A break below 7.6040 would trigger a drop towards 7.5780.
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Commenting today’s moves on main markets isn’t the most exciting thing to do. European stock markets tried a lukewarm comeback after a -1% opening, but don’t get that far. The fragile risk environment continues to support the dollar. EUR/USD changes hands around 1.1630, dropping further below the 1.1696 support...